Capital Markets

CBRE professionals in Asia Pacific observe that investor risk appetite remains low amid a delayed recovery in investment activity. A majority of respondents expect a recovery from Q2 2024 onwards, amid limited expectations of interest rate cuts in the first half of 2024.

Selling pressure persists across most of the region, with the primary exception of India which is receiving increased buying interest from investors. Most investors – excluding private investors and institutional investors/LPs – also have higher intentions to sell than in Q1 2023.

The survey reveals that the price gap is widening for assets with strong fundamentals, such as multifamily, institutional-grade modern logistics facilities, prime shopping malls, cold storage and data centres.

While institutional-grade logistics remains the most popular sector for investors, interest in retail has increased. Slow re-pricing is prompting investors to seek alternative or niche sectors, with real estate debt strategies gaining traction among alternatives.

Cap rates are set to expand across Asia Pacific, reflecting a prolonged high interest rate environment, and as re-pricing lags behind the US and Europe.

This report was originally published in https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/asia-pacific-cap-rate-survey-2023-q3

Key findings:

• Australia: Across almost all the Australian cities covered, cap rates in all sectors exhibited an upward movement quarter-on-quarter. Industrial assets in Australia with long lease expirations and low fixed-term rent experienced downward pressure on values during the last quarter.
• China: In China, investment activity remains subdued with only individual investors and insurance institutes actively seeking out discounted assets and adopting a cautious approach to investment. This has resulted in subdued market sentiment in the property sector for Beijing and Shanghai compared to Q2. To vitalize the market environment, the central bank of China has been lowering the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) to alleviate the burden on loans, with the objective of unlocking resources for consumption and promoting nationwide GDP growth. In Beijing and Shanghai, the industrial sector experienced a wave of new supply as the take-up of existing stock slowed down. The government’s release of more industrial and logistics land resulted in an augmented supply in the market.
• Hong Kong: Hong Kong interest rates have continued to gradually increase over the past year. Asset values are under increasing downward pressure, which is beginning to be reflected in pricing. Vacancies remain high and rental prices experienced downward pressure across all sectors.
• India: In Bengaluru, Q3 office transaction volumes remained similar to the previous quarter, with a few transactions driven by individual investors as institutional players were less active. Deal sizes were smaller but more resilient, resulting in a marginal downward change in the cap rate in the office segment. In Mumbai, the retail sector is anticipated to gain traction in the near future, driven by demand from the luxury segment and the release of additional supplies of quality organized retail assets. Mumbai industrial demand remained strong in Q3, and the compression in the cap rate was attributed to lower availability of Grade A stock, coupled with a positive outlook from large institutional investors towards the sector. The investors were willing to trade off lower current yields for anticipated future growth in the sector.
• Japan: Some investors may consider Japan a risk averse market for real estate investment since the start of the interest rate hike, primarily due to its relatively accommodative monetary policy. The sales volume of foreign investments in real estate has yet to witness a significant increase, although sentiment and interest remain strong. The Tokyo office sector performed well in Q3, with occupancy rates remaining at a healthy level, especially when considering the challenges faced by some other cities in terms of take-up. This is driven by the return to office culture – government statistics indicate that the hybrid working ratio in Tokyo was 44% in mid-2023, down from a peak of over 64% in 2021.
• Korea: Seoul office assets remain in high demand, with rental levels holding firm for landlords. However, there is increasing downward pressure on values due to a lack of liquidity in the market.
• New Zealand: In Auckland, there has been upward movement for more than a year in the office sector. Transactional activity remained subdued over the last quarter as investors continued to take a cautious approach to the market. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has maintained a steady Official Cash Rate in its last three monetary policy meetings, indicating that rates are at or near their peak in the current cycle. With interest rates stabilising it is anticipated that greater clarity over asset pricing will emerge. This, in combination with the election having been completed, is likely to result in an uplift in sales activity during the final quarter of 2023 ad into 2024.
• Singapore: Cap rates across sectors remain subdued, with a lack of sales evidence to support movement. Increasing lending costs are putting pressure on many investors and owners. However, there are other investors with deep pockets who are taking advantage of this opportunity to acquire assets for long-term investment.

Q3 2023 Singapore Figures report provides the latest commentary and data on net absorption, rents, vacancy, supply and other key metrics in Singapore's office, business parks, retail, residential and industrial markets, along with an analysis of real estate investment activity.

Executive Summary

Office: Year-to-date, Core CBD (Grade A) rents have increased by 1.3% in 2023. There was positive net absorption of 0.11 mil sq. ft., as compared to a more modest level of 0.03 mil sq. ft. in H1 2023.

Business Parks: Demand for business parks continued to moderate as leasing sentiment turned cautious. Rest of Island rents registered its first quarter of decline since Q1 2021.

Retail: Prime islandwide retail rents rose at a faster clip in Q3 2023 (1.4% q-o-q), compared to 0.8% q-o-q in Q2 2023.

Residential: New home sales slowed despite a larger number of new projects and units launched. Following the fall in overall private housing prices in Q2 2023, prices rebounded.

Industrial: Despite the economic headwinds, prime logistics rents have grown by 11.7% year-to-date, as limited supply of prime logistics space was met with strong leasing demand.

Investment: Preliminary real estate investment volumes in Singapore for Q3 2023 surged 93.4% q-o-q (-13.5% y-o-y) to $7.044 bn, mainly on public (mostly residential) land sales. Excluding these sites, investment volumes would be down marginally by 2.5% q-o-q.

This report was originally published in https://www.cbre.com.sg/insights/figures/singapore-figures-q3-2023

Investors have long-sought after real estate for price appreciation, inflation protection and diversification.

There are a variety of ways to access real estate, including the private route, direct investment in brick-and-mortar properties, debt investments backed by real estate, publicly traded Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and securities, and securitised fixed income instruments. Arguably the most optimal approach is to combine these approaches’ complementary benefits by following what CBRE terms as the ‘Four Quadrants’ approach.

The Four Quadrants approach involves four primary investment conduits through which institutional investors can obtain exposure to commercial real estate. These are:

• Private Equity
• Public Equity
• Private Debt
• Public Debt

This report reviews the Asia Pacific real estate investment landscape across these four quadrants, and shares insights on potential opportunities and strategies for investors.

This report was originally published in https://www.cbre.com/insights/reports/asia-pacific-four-quadrants