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Overview
Asia Pacific stock markets endured another tepid month in May as investors remained focused on rising inflationary pressures, as a surge in commodity prices threatens to drive up inflation. The region also contended with a fresh wave of Covid-19 infections across several countries including India, Japan and parts of Southeast Asia. A spike in caseloads in Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam, which had the most success in curbing infection levels, also unnerved investors. Vaccine rollouts, at rates lagging those worldwide are compounding concerns that protracted border controls will delay an economic recovery. Property stocks across the region reacted by underperforming both the region’s equity and bond indices.
Listed Real Estate
The GPR/APREA Listed Real Estate Composite barely remained in positive territory, with marginal gains in Australia, Hong Kong and Japan just managing to offset declines in the other regional heavyweights of China and Singapore. China real estate stocks slipped, after a meeting held in Beijing contemplated a property tax to rein in rampant speculation in the housing market dragged on sentiment.
However, Hong Kong shares closed higher for a second month in a row as investors bought into the strong Chinese currency and the US Federal Reserve’s commitment towards monetary accommodation. Despite grappling with the world’s highest infection caseload, India stocks scored the highest returns as the merger of Indiabulls Real Estate and Embassy Group gained momentum. Regulatory pathways cleared for the merger will create one of India’s largest listed real estate companies.
REITs
The GPR/APREA Composite REIT Index held on to record another positive month in May. However, most REIT markets in the Asia Pacific underperformed equities. Hong Kong was the exception, clocking the highest returns at just over 3%. Sector-wise, gains were also tepid across the main property segments. S-REITs were among the underperformers in the region, as the country heightened restrictions over the increase in infections. Nonetheless, industrial S-REITs continue to increase their assets under management, with significant acquisitions valued at over S$5 billion announced this year.
A significant development also greeted REIT markets in the region. China’s long-awaited public REITs market kicked off, after regulators approved the first batch of its REITs, comprising nine stocks that will raise an estimated RMB30 billion for infrastructure projects. However, unlike other markets, Chinese REITs are only backed by infrastructure. For now, eligible underlying assets do not include commercial properties such as shopping malls or offices. Meanwhile, Hong Kong saw its first logistics-focused REIT list, after SF REIT successfully debuted on the territory’s stock exchange.
The region is also experiencing heightened M&A activity in the REIT space. In addition to the current tussle for Invesco Office J-REIT in Japan, ASX-listed Australian Unity Healthcare Property Trust has also been the target of a takeover bid by Canada’s NorthWest Healthcare Properties REIT and Singapore sovereign wealth fund, GIC.
Outlook
As rising resource prices and escalating shipping costs heighten the possibility of an earlier-than-expected policy rate hike, inflation will continue to be a dominant theme for investors. However, treasury yields have retreated in May, after the Fed commented that such price spikes, that stem from base effects, will be transitory. Investors are buying into the view that the Fed will tolerate higher prices before hiking rates and tapering bond purchases. Amid the ongoing economic recovery, Asia Pacific REITs will continue to benefit from the sustained low interest rate environment and strong demand for real estate investments among institutional buyers.
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再通胀交易在第一季度实现快速增长后，而今却由于美国失业救济申请人数意外激增，从而陷入停滞。新一波的疫情浪潮，尤其是在亚洲，也促使投资者转向避险资产，导致4月份10年期国债收益率短暂跌至一个多月来的最低点。美联储在本月底的定期会议上决定维持利率不变。尽管经济正在复苏，美联储仍然重申在未来短期内，将继续推行高度宽松的货币政策。亚太股票市场反应乐观，继上月下跌后，摩根士丹利亚太股价指数已重回正值。
亚太上市房地产公司股票
尽管GPR/APREA上市房地产综合指数仍处于正值，但由于中国和日本权重股的下跌，综合指数涨幅并不显著。其中，中国股市跌幅最大，由于数据显示房产价格仍在持续上涨，因此，投资者担忧监管将施加更大的压力。中国许多城市3月新房房价增速都达到了过去7个月来的最高点。距离奥运会只剩三个月，日本宣布进入第三轮紧急状态，以抑制疫情发展，而这也打击了日本国内的市场信心。
亚太REITs
大部分亚太市场表现良好，GPR/APREA综合房地产投资信托指数延续了2月以来的涨势，本月月底收高。亚太REITs连续第二个月跑赢股票。
其中，日本REITs引领涨幅，保持2020年11月以来的连胜势头，因为机构对日本房地产资产的兴趣增加，从而推动了REITs的表现。喜达屋资本拟计划收购日本景顺资产管理公司的REIT，初始报价即溢价超10%。预期未来报价将上涨，投资者竞相抬价抢购。此外，日本央行承诺每年继续拨出高达1800亿日元的资金购买日本REITs。低利率和对经济复苏的预期也给澳大利亚市场带来了信心，收益上涨。
同时，巴基斯坦证券与交易委员会，即该国的市场监管机构，正在逐步放松对REIT的监管，取消对提供竣工证明文件的强制性要求，该要求被许多投资者认为阻碍了REIT的发展。继2015年上市首支REIT后，这个南亚国家还未推出任何新的REITs。
亚太REITs行业正处于持续扩张中。中国最大的快递供应商，顺丰控股有限公司，计划将三个总价值61亿港币的物流中心纳入到一个在香港上市的离岸REIT中。顺丰已在4月向香港交易所提供了顺丰REIT的上市申请。地产开发商和管理公司丰树投资也计划在新加坡上市学生住房类REIT，预计能筹资约10亿新元。
前景展望
距离疫情爆发已一年有余，亚太REITs已逆转颓势，超过了去年1月份疫情爆发前的最高点。然而，在收益方面仍然不如亚太股票。
至于未来，疫情再度爆发的压力与通胀都为市场前景蒙上了阴影。尽管如此，后疫情时代的经济复苏仍将逐步提速，这将对亚太REITs带来积极影响。在当前的低利率环境下，机构投资者对房产资产的兴趣不减，而在他们的带动下，商业房地产市场也更加活跃，预计这也将有利于REITs的估值。
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After rising rapidly in the first quarter of the year, the reflation trade hit a pause amid an unexpected rise in new claims for unemployment benefits in the US. Renewed waves of Covid infection caseloads, particularly in Asia, also prompted a flight to safety with yields on 10-year Treasuries briefly hitting their lowest in over a month during April. The Fed, in a scheduled meeting at the end of the month, left rates unchanged. Despite a recovering economy, it reiterated that highly accommodative monetary policy will continue for the foreseeable future. Stock markets in the region reacted optimistically, with MSCI’s regional equity gauge back in positive territory after dipping in the previous month.
Listed Real Estate
While the GPR/APREA Listed Real Estate Composite remained in positive territory, gains were largely modest, stymied by declines in regional heavyweights – China and Japan. China stocks fell the most, as investors remained wary of regulatory pressures following data that showed sustained property price increases. New home prices in March rose at the fastest pace in seven months, with increases noted in more cities. A third state of emergency declared in Japan, in a gambit to counter infection cases three months ahead of the Olympics, hurt sentiment in the country.
REITs
Supported by positive performances in most markets, the GPR/APREA Composite REIT Index ended the month higher, sustaining a run from February. The region’s REITs outperformed equities for the second month in a row.
J-REITs led the region, maintaining a winning streak from November 2020, as increased institutional interest in Japan’s real estate assets drove performance. Starwood Capital tabled a proposal to acquire Invesco Office J-REIT, with an initial offer price that valued the REIT at a premium of over 10%. Anticipating subsequent improved offers, the stock was quickly bid up by investors. Additionally, the BoJ maintained a pledge to buy J-REITS at an annual pace of up to ¥180 billion. In Australia, positive sentiment supported by low-interest rates and expectations of an economic recovery, fueled gains.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s markets regulator Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan, is working on easing REIT regulations, removing the need for a mandatory building completion certificate which many investors viewed as a hurdle. The South Asian country has not seen any REITs after its only listing debuted in 2015.
The region’s REIT universe continued to expand. S.F. Holding, China’s largest listed courier provider, plans to inject three logistics centres worth HK$6.1 billion into an offshore REIT to be listed in Hong Kong. A listing application for SF Real Estate Investment Trust was submitted to Hong Kong’s bourse operator in April. Mapletree Investments, a property developer and manager, is also exploring listing a student housing REIT in Singapore that could raise about S$1 billion.
Outlook
More than a year since the pandemic erupted, the region’s REITs have retraced its decline to surpass the pre-pandemic high recorded in January last year. However, they continue to lag Asia Pacific equities in returns.
Looking ahead, a flare-up of coronavirus pandemic in the region and sustained inflationary pressures continue to cloud the outlook for markets. Still, the post-pandemic economic recovery will likely gradually gather pace, which should be positive for the region’s REITs. Increased activities in the commercial real estate market, led by institutional investors suggesting continued interest in real estate assets under the current low-interest-rate environment, is expected to provide support to REITs’ valuations.
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全球债券市场2021年开局惨淡，一季度投资者收益率跌至2016年第四季度以来的最低点，同时，美国10年期国债基准收益率上升超80个基点。由于债券利率在三月一路攀升，达一年来最高水平，因此，在疫情爆发前，任何跌势都不会持续太久。收益率飙升主要得益于亚太股票市场投资者对过高估价的担忧。
从疫情中获益最多的科技股在此次抛售浪潮中首当其冲，尤其是受中国当局在国内的反垄断措施影响。而投资基金Archegos Capital的崩塌也让金融股感到紧张，使得该部门流失数十亿的资金。这也让亚太地产股指数高于总体股票基准。
亚太上市房地产公司股票
GPR/APREA综合上市房地产指数反弹1.8%，其中，澳大利亚地产股在合订信托的推动下，在亚太地区的增长中处于领先地位。澳大利亚经济在2020年最后一个季度的GDP增长高于预期，随着管制放宽，住宅价格也持续上涨。日本股票的表现也优于大盘，主要得益于其最大的开发商，以及防疫措施放宽对市场信心的提升。同时，中国股市的涨幅受到限制，投资者预计政策支持力度将减小，有迹象显示中国经济复苏正在进一步提速。
继合并其办公和零售REITs后，凯德集团紧接着又宣布一项企业重组计划，将其开发部门私有化，并将其投资管理部门独立为专门的基金管理和创收业务。作为一家独立上市的公司，凯德投资管理将成为亚洲资产管理规模最大的房地产投资管理公司，以及全球第三大上市房地产投资管理公司，仅次于布鲁克菲尔德资产管理与百仕通。
亚太REITs
亚太REITs三月份上涨1.9%，地区内主要市场普遍上行。除了澳大利亚多元化和工业信托收益率表现强劲外，日本REITs也凭借其住宅REITs表现优异，使得该版块在3月份创下亚太地区最高回报率。由于缺乏推动收益上涨的因素，零售和酒店业失去增长势头。
同时，在房地产开发商Filinvest向菲律宾证券交易所有关部门登记募股后，不到一年时间内，菲律宾已准备推出其第三支REIT。该REIT主要由Filinvest统筹发展的某商业区业务外包流程办公资产组成，如果允许超额配售，那么此次发行预计能筹集149亿比索。
自去年年底以来，投资逐渐恢复活力，新加坡上市REITs仍在积极寻找投资跨境资产的机会，并于今年第一季度达成25亿美元的交易量，收购总额有望赶超去年。值得注意的是，丰树物流信托首次进军印度，以大约8440万新元的价格收购了位于普纳的两家仓库。腾飞REIT则是最大的跨境投资者，贡献超17亿美元，其中包括腾飞REIT在欧洲收购的首个数据中心。
前景展望
在疫情爆发一年后，亚太地产股已从三月低潮中强势反弹。尽管亚太REITs表现显著优于大盘房地产指数，为投资者带来接近38%的回报率，但仍然落后于亚太股市。
由于基数效应放大通胀预期，短期内经济前景仍存在不确定性。再加上由于变异病毒导致病例数量激增，无疑也为未来增添了更多的不确定性。供应短缺和大宗商品价格上涨预示着持续但不平衡，甚至是混乱的经济复苏局面，投资者将继续面对债券收益率上升和政策收紧带来的影响。
然而，亚太REITs所提供的收益率差仍然可观，在一些发达市场通常能接近200个基点，甚至更高。随着经济活动常态化，持续的通货再膨胀贸易或与全球经济复苏节奏保持一致。REITs无疑将得益于这一背景，进一步上涨。如果在经济有序回升的前提下，通胀压力卷土重来，那么不可避免地需要权衡二者间的利弊。
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Global bond markets endured a harrowing start to 2021, ending one of the worst quarters for investors since the last quarter of 2016 as the benchmark yield on 10-year Treasuries rose by over 80 bps. Any pullback was short-lived as bond yields resumed their climb through March to hit their highest in over a year, before the pandemic struck. The surge in yields weighed on the region’s equity markets, as investors turn skittish on lofty valuations.
Tech stocks which have benefitted most as pandemic plays bore the brunt of the sell off, not least helped by a crackdown on anti-trust behavior by Chinese authorities in its own backyard. Financial stocks were also rattled by the collapse of investment fund Archegos Capital, leaving the sector exposed to losses in billions. This lifted the region’s property stocks above the broad equity benchmark.
Listed Real Estate
The GPR/APREA Listed Real Estate Composite returned 1.8% with Australian property counters leading the region, powered by its stapled trusts. The Australian economy had posted better-than-expected GDP growth in the last quarter of 2020, as restrictions eased, with sustained gains in residential prices. Japanese stocks also outperformed on the back of their largest developers, with the lifting of emergency measures a sentiment booster. Meanwhile, gains were capped in China, as investors anticipated policy support to be scaled back with signs that the recovery is further gaining ground.
Hot on the heels after the merger of its office and retail REITs, CapitaLand announced a corporate restructure to take private its development arm private and carve out its investment management arm as a pure-play fund-management and fee-income business. The separately listed entity, CapitaLand Investment Management, will rank as the biggest real estate investment manager in Asia in terms of AUM, and the third-biggest listed globally – behind Brookfield Asset Management and Blackstone.
REITs
Asia Pacific REITs climbed 1.9% in March with broad-based gains across the region’s major markets. In addition to the strong returns of Australia’s diversified and industrial trusts, J-REITs also delivered on the strength of their Residential REITs, which powered the sector to record the region’s highest return in March. With a lack of catalysts to fuel further gains, Retail and Hospitality lost momentum.
Meanwhile, the Philippines is on track to debut its third REIT in under a year, after developer Filinvest registered its offering with the country’s exchange authorities. Comprising mostly of BPO office assets in a business district it master-developed, the offering is expected to raise PHP14.9 billion, if the over allotment option is exercised.
With investment activity roaring back to life late last year, Singapore-listed REITs continued to maintain their momentum in the hunt for cross border assets. Total acquisitions made by the sector is on track to surpass last year’s, following US$2.5 billion deals struck in the first quarter. Notably, Mapletree Logistics Trust made its maiden foray into India, acquiring two warehouses in the city of Pune for approximately S$84.4m. Ascendas REIT was the biggest spender, investing over US$1.7 billion, including the REIT’s first data centre acquisitions in Europe.
Outlook
One year since the pandemic erupted, the region’s property stocks have bounced back strongly from their March lows. While the region’s REITs have notably outpaced the wider real estate index, registering close to 38% returns for investors, they continue to lag Asia Pacific equities.
The near-term outlook will remain volatile, as base effects amplify inflationary expectations. Additionally, the recent surge in caseloads from new virus variants will no doubt contribute to uncertainty ahead. With the spectre of supply shortages and rising commodity prices signaling a sustained, albeit uneven and at times messy, economic recovery, investors will continue to grapple with the implications of higher bond yields as well as looming policy tightening.
Still, spreads offered by the region’s REITs remain decent, typically close to 200 bps and higher in some developed markets. As economic activity normalizes, the ongoing reflation trade can be consistent with a synchronous global recovery. REITs will undoubtedly benefit from this backdrop to further deliver on price gains. The return of inflationary pressures, if orderly, being the inevitable trade off.
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