Thought Leadership

When COVID hit the world, the accompanying lockdowns brought the term Work(ing) From Home (WFH) from the margin to the mainstream. This sounded alarm bells around the world, from savvy investors like Warren Buff et to analysts and other market watchers, thinking that the age of the CBD office market is over. Those who believe that WFH will significantly reduce demand for office space have valid reasons but their concerns about demand have not been articulated considering the following:

• The COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing lockdowns’ economic ramifications have caused significant uncertainty over the future of work and rental income from office properties.
• Nearly 60% of the UK Quarterly Property Index’s office rental income comes from leases that expire or contain a break-clause date over the next five years.
• A review of lease events showed that in 2019 47% of offices were vacant for one quarter or more after a break clause and 72% were vacant after lease expiry.1 These numbers could rise amid COVID-19, leaving more rent at risk.

• Lockdowns and social distancing have impacted many tenant businesses, resulting in an unprecedented number of requests for rental relief, stressing real estate rental-income streams.
• For equity investors, income returns have weakened, despite softening asset values. Recent income returns may understate the full potential impact as accrual of deferred rents may mask further shortfalls.
• Lower rental incomes may also stress debt covenants and increase servicing pressures on some loans. In loans that default and are foreclosed upon, falling asset values may also increase potential loss severity.

What’s the effect on investors when commercial tenants can’t pay their rent? For answers, we caught up with Bryan Reid, executive director on MSCI’s real estate solutions research team.