GPR/APREA Index Report – June 2022

The Fed raised its key benchmark rate by 75 bps in June, to 1.50%-1.75%, to combat inflationary pressures, which reached 8.6% in May, the highest level in over 40 years. Central banks in the region followed suit with hikes in Australia, Taiwan, Hong Kong, India and the Philippines noted. The hawkish stance heightened concerns about a possible US recession, which further clouded capital markets. Yields on 10-year treasuries rose above 3% to peak at 3.5% during the month before falling back. Key sections of the treasury yield curve also inverted as data on US inflation drove traders to boost bets on the pace of Fed tightening. Two-year yields rose above 10-year rates for the first time since April  while five-year yields were noted to have surged as much as 17 bps above 30-year rates to record the widest spread in over two decades. Consequently, markets are pricing in a growing risk that the Fed’s  bid to engineer a soft landing for the world’s biggest economy are likely to falter.