Market Outlook

The real estate market in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region continues to exhibit robust growth at a global scale, including significant advancements in the housing segment and green transformation. Technological progress in APAC economies has also catalysed transformation within the real estate sector, with digitalisation and data centre development gaining momentum. These changes have concurrently influenced the development of real estate projects within the region.

Globally, the real estate sector is increasingly embracing environment, social and governance (ESG)-driven innovations such as acquiring green city ratings, investments in renewable energy projects, among others. This shift is evident in the updated real estate regulations within the APAC region for 1QFY25. Several APAC economies, including China, Hong Kong, Japan and India have implemented guidelines promoting green infrastructure and technology integration to augment their real estate markets. Furthermore, commercial and industrial real estate is significantly rising in the APAC region with development plans for business and commercial projects underway.

In line with these strategic developments, APAC economies offer an attractive prospect for investors due to regulatory updates aimed at attracting various asset classes and types. These economies are predicted to play a pivotal role in channelling regional investments and fostering development in the forthcoming months.

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Continued soft inflation and employment data in the US has changed market leadership as expectations for several Federal Reserve Fed Fund rate cuts has led to a strong rotation from large cap tech into lagging sectors including REITs which are seen as beneficiaries of lower rates. The FTSE EPRA Nareit Asia USD Dev Net TR rose 6.34% in July. Our active markets:

• Japan, +9.5%: BoJ Governor Ueda raised short term rates, with a following press conference that was both hawkish and confusing resulting in a lot of volatility until now. JREITs have performed much better relatively and are up in USD terms since the move. Bank stocks, beneficiaries of higher rates, moved up initially after Ueda’s comments but then lost nearly 25% in two days as rate expectations have changed with global macro conditions continuing to moderate.

• Australia, +3.8%:  The RBA announced no change to policy rate in its August 6 meeting and pushed back on expectations for a near-term OCR cut given persistently high inflation caused by high labour costs. We expect Goodman Group to show solid results including decent guidance due to strong contribution from its growing Data Center developments. We will probably increase our underweight should earnings be well received next week.

• Hong Kong, +1.5%: Expectations going into results are extremely low especially after Hang Lung Properties’ DPS cut by 1/3rd due to weak sales particularly in China. We attended Link REIT’s HK and Shenzhen asset tour and noticed weak attendance from buyside firms as interest in the market is at extremely low levels despite cheap valuations.

• Singapore, +6.2%:  SREIT results were in line with expectations and dividend growth has been stunted by higher interest costs. Given the outlook for rates globally, rates in Singapore will follow as the MAS does not set interest rate policy directly.

The bottom line: REITs have been trading up since the US CPI print on July 11 on the back of a reset in rates expectations and decent earnings.

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Continued soft inflation and employment data in the US has changed market leadership as expectations for several Federal Reserve Fed Fund rate cuts has led to a strong rotation from large cap tech into lagging sectors including REITs which are seen as beneficiaries of lower rates. The FTSE EPRA Nareit Asia USD Dev Net TR rose 6.34% in July. Our active markets:

• Japan, +9.5%: BoJ Governor Ueda raised short term rates, press conference was hawkish and confusing. Created a lot of volatility to this day. JREITs, have performed much better relatively and are up in USD terms since the move. Bank stocks, beneficiaries of higher rates moved up initially after Ueda’s comments, but then lost almost 25% in two days as rate expectations have changed with global macro conditions continuing to moderate
• Australia, +3.8%:  The RBA announced no change to policy rate in its August 6 meeting and pushed back on expectations for a near-term OCR cut given persistently high inflation caused by high labour costs. We expect Goodman Group to show solid results including decent guidance due to strong contribution from its growing Data Center developments. We will probably increase our underweight should earnings be well received next week
• Hong Kong, +1.5%: Expectations going into results are extremely low especially after Hang Lung Properties’ DPS cut by 1/3rd due to weak sales particularly in China. We attended Link REIT’s HK and Shenzhen asset tour (separate note) and noticed weak attendance from buyside firms as interest in the market is at extremely low levels despite cheap valuations
• Singapore, +6.2%:  SREIT results were in line with expectations and dividend growth has been stunted by higher interest costs. Given the outlook for rates globally, rates in Singapore will follow as the MAS does not set interest rate policy directly.

Bottom line: REITs have been trading up since the US CPI print on July 11 on the back of a reset in rates expectations and decent earnings.

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Recent rapid interest rate hikes have tempered economic expansion, yet growth remains resilient throughout the region.

As a result of interest rate hikes, commercial real estate investment in Asia Pacific has declined 40%, though recent data has shown stabilisation and some sectors moving off from their investment low-point.

LOOKING FORWARD

Anticipate upcoming interest rate cuts, although their pace and scale will vary across different markets, which will support accelerating investment transaction activity.

There is significant capital waiting to be deployed. Accordingly, opportunities exist along the risk curve and for different investment styles for astute investors. Secular megatrends will drive growth in Alternative and “through the cycle” asset classes.

While we advise investors to be mindful of government and household debt levels and keep an eye on any significant unwinding of labour markets, history tells us that the time to act is now.

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