Asian Market Outlook - November 2024 (B&I Capital)

October was a difficult month for Asian Real Estate (RE) securities and REITs. We mentioned in last month’s update that we expected volatility given the upcoming elections in both the US and Japan, along with recent economic data that had reduced expectations of more aggressive Fed interest rate cuts. Expectations of a Trump victory were clearly anticipated in equity, fixed income, currency, and crypto markets. The Asian RE universe fell by more than 7% in USD, with much of the weakness coming from exchange rates. Back in 2016, Asian RE Securities and REITs suffered after Trump’s surprise victory, initially falling by 6% in the weeks after the election and significantly trailing the SPX, which rose over that same period. However, the sector rallied by nearly 10% from the start of 2017 until mid-year when Trump officially took office and subsequently rose by 15.5% in 2017. Given the outcome was less of a surprise this time around, we believe the market had somewhat priced in a Trump victory already.

While the risks of accelerating inflation due to pro-cyclical policies are a concern, there are other forces that will help contain inflation, such as rising productivity; and while tariffs may spike US inflation initially, they are likely to hurt the economy and some US companies due to higher input costs and potential retaliation from trading partners. China is cautious in unleashing additional stimuli until Trump takes office, which has led to additional disappointment in the region. While it is hard to estimate the full potential impact on rates and Asian growth from Trump’s anticipated policies, the sector performance in October was worse than in the months after Trump’s 2016 surprise victory. Therefore, we are hopeful that we will see some bottoming soon given the sharp decline in stocks and forecasted recovery in DPUs going into 2025 and 2026.

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