Thought Leadership

Although rents have weakened, occupancy rates see a slow recovery.

• Rents in the Tokyo 23 wards (23W) fell by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 3.6% year-on-year (YoY) to JPY3,929 per sq m this quarter.
• Average mid-market rents in the central five wards (C5W) saw a small decline this quarter and are now at JPY4,661 per sq m – a fall of 0.2% QoQ and 3.6% YoY.
• The C5W premium has inched up to 17.9% – up 0.3 percentage points (ppts) from Q2/2021.
• In the C5W, average rents for units in the 15-30 sq m size band have again decreased this quarter. However, the 30-45 sq m size band saw a small increase in rents.
• The average occupancy rate in the 23W rose by 0.2ppts to 95.6%. The C5W saw a similar increment, increasing 0.2ppts to 94.5%.
• The C5W has seen a population decline, driven by younger families who appear to prefer larger units.

This article was originally published in https://www.savills.com.hk/

In a broadly stable market, some signs of leasing activity were detected in Central, while F&B again proved to be the go-to sector for landlords.

• The market has been relatively stable over the third quarter with retail sentiment weak, while F&B has remained a rare bright spot.
• Dining-out or ‘eat-cations’ have become the ‘new holiday’ for locals, supporting the F&B sector across all price points.
• Leasing activity in core locations remains largely subdued except Central which continues to benefit from its reliance on high-end local demand.
• Rents in both the prime street shop and major shopping centre segments have stabilised and registered a QoQ growth rate of 0.4% and 1.2% respectively.

This article was originally published in https://www.savills.com.hk/

Rental declines were milder in Kowloon with vacancy gradually absorbed after the aggressive rental adjustments of late last year. 

• Grade A rents fell by 1.5% in Q3/2021 compared with a 2.6% decline in Q2/2021.
• The Central office market has been buffeted by the same headwinds as other markets, but despite this we have seen some selective expansion demand and new leases among Mainland financial institutions as well as new industry tenants.
• In the uncertain environment, serviced offices are popular, and we note more take-up from large operators in core business districts.
• Rental declines were milder in Kowloon with vacancy gradually absorbed, particularly in Tsim Sha Tsui and Kowloon East.
• Vacancy rates continued to climb to 9.3% in Q3 with office buildings in some areas, such as North Point and Kowloon West, suffering more than others.
• Upcoming supply in prime areas is seeing some early pre-commitment.
• As Central’s rental premium over the rest of the market narrows, decentralised rents may in turn come under pressure. Looking ahead, during a period of uncertain prospects and elevated supply, a lot will depend on demand from PRC firms over the next 12 to 24 months.

This article was originally published in https://www.savills.com.hk/

Logistics leasing activity levels revived in Q3 with operators opting to renewal in order to minimize business disruption, while those with expansion needs were looking for relocation options.

• The revival of the local trading and retail sectors has meant that many logistics operators were keen to renew leases to avoid business disruption, while those with expansion demand chose to relocate. 
• Overall and modern warehouse rents continued to rebound by 2.1% and 2.5% in Q3/2021 respectively, while both overall and modern warehouse vacancy rates fell to 3.2% and 2.6% over the same quarter, after a small spike last quarter.
• Investment sentiment continued to revive in Q3 with 17 major deals of over HK$100 million concluded worth a total of over HK$7.3 billion.  While investment funds were still keen on the high yield logistics sector, we note more participation from logistics operators (for eventual owner-occupation) and developers (for redevelopment).
• With local and global supply chains both expected to continue to rebound, short-term logistics demand seems to be sustainable. Nevertheless, a total of 7 million sq ft of new warehouse space is scheduled to come on stream over the next two years, so far with little pre-commitment, and this will test market resolve when it arrives in 2022 and 2023. 
• The robust investment sentiment for warehouse assets so far this year has already pushed prices up and yields down.  With Revitalization Policy 2.0 extended for another three years, we expect industrial investment to refocus more on run-down industrial premises with redevelopment potential.

This article was originally published in https://www.savills.com.hk/