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In this January 2021 issue, we take a look at the latest updates on the local commercial real estate market as well as share an outlook for the sector in 2021.
Q4 2020 was a crucial quarter as it marked a recovery momentum with leasing indicators trending favourably compared to the previous couple of quarters. In a time of change with COVID upending the workplace playbook, the leasing trends and occupier strategies are undergoing a rapid shift and will have a bearing on market activity. Even as the COVID scenario was evolving and occupiers continued with evaluating their real estate portfolios and charting their space requirements, almost all the cities saw heightened levels of market activity with expansion driven demand making a comeback of sorts as well. Mumbai, Pune, Delhi NCR, Ahmedabad, and Kolkata have witnessed higher fresh leasing activity for expansion and consolidation during the last quarter of the year. This augurs well for the leasing momentum in 2021, which is likely to get broad-based across cities with introduction of a vaccine and a gradual return to the workplace providing the much-needed push to market activity.
In this report, we analyse the Indian office markets’ performance in Q4 as well as during the full year of 2020.
This presents many opportunities for readers of The Wealth Report, whether it’s the investment potential of the global demographic trend towards longer, healthier lives – explored in detail in our Big Interview on page 10 – or the ability of forward-thinking property investors and landlords to capitalise on demand for “healthy” workspaces that boost productivity, which we discuss on page 76. In parallel with this, “giving something back” is increasingly important to the UHNWI community, and on page 86 we profile three fascinating philanthropists whose work benefits a diverse range of causes.
A central pillar of The Wealth Report, the results of our proprietary Wealth Sizing Model – unveiled on page 18 – reveal that wealth continues to be created around the world, especially in Asia’s economic hubs. This growth in private capital is having a noticeable impact on real estate markets globally.
Read MoreWhatever happens, real estate investors need to be innovative and adaptable, forming investment strategies which align with these structural changes.
COVID-19 has plunged the world into one of the most uncertain periods on record. Gold has hit record highs, equity volatility is elevated and government bond yields around the world remain low. Yet against this backdrop, we predict that real estate investment will remain attractive, thanks to lower volatility than other asset classes, a history of strong returns through longer-term direct investment, and, crucially, its ability to generate income in a world where 60% of bond yields globally are below 1%1 and over $14 trillion have negative yields.
For the service sector, a greater domestic workforce of support staff will offer renewed demand for office space. Localised employment growth in manufacturing, storage and service sectors will also enhance demand for other types of real estate, including residential and healthcare. There will also be indirect opportunities for international real estate investment. As an alternative to increased localisation, cross-border property investment offers global diversification and more options to meet revenue targets.
Nationalism and the advent of trade wars were already on the ascendency, but recent disruptions to business continuity, and overseas travel caused by the pandemic will only accelerate this trend. This has prompted discussions of reshoring (bringing foreign operations back home), onshoring (bringing supply chains within national borders) and nearshoring (bringing operations closer to home). Some types of real estate will thrive as a result. The logistics sector is seeing additional occupational requirements, which have translated into an even stronger investment demand.
Read MorePrime retail markets were severely disrupted by the pandemic with rental movements from -41.6% (Jakarta) to +2.6% (Guangzhou). In Jakarta, with strict social distancing measures and restrictions on mall opening hours, landlords were pressured to provide rental relief, and many of them slashed rents by half. In China, retail footfall recovered, and rents increased by 2.6% and 0.5% in Guangzhou, Shanghai, while softening by 2.8% and 1.5% in Beijing and Shenzhen. Vietnam’s retail markets were resilient with total retail sales of goods and services up 5.6% QoQ in Q4/2020. Rents in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi increased by 2.1% and 0.1% respectively.
The logistics market has proven to be highly resilient and will remain a key focus in the region, with rental movements ranging from -0.4% (Shanghai) to +7.3% (Singapore). The pandemic accelerated a shift to online retail, and logistics assets were the major beneficiary. In Singapore, most warehouses are at capacity and some spillover demand has been seen in traditional factory space. In China, driven by rising domestic consumption and e-commerce, demand for modern logistics facilities is expanding rapidly. Beijing (+0.7%), Shanghai (-0.4%), Shenzhen (+2.4%) and Guangzhou (+3.0%) all entered an early upswing.
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