Knowledge Hub

As experts in commercial real estate, our work is built on successfully identifying and navigating opportunities for our clients. In our fourth annual Global Investor Outlook report, we provide a comprehensive, in-depth look at the trends set to dominate the investment market and where we think opportunities can be found in the year ahead. We have synthesised views from our senior Capital Markets experts and investors around the world.

In 2024, challenging conditions will persist, but a clearer rate outlook and tightening bid-ask spreads appear to be on the horizon. As investors continue to seek stability in policy environments, the industrial & logistics (I&L), multifamily and office sectors largely remain their top picks in the upcoming year. As momentum builds, the best-positioned investors will be those who are ready to act on opportunity.

Global Key Themes

• Real estate assets retain appeal despite ‘higher for longer’ interest rates. Pricing will continue to adjust to a more realistic equilibrium, and we expect transactions to pick up in H2 2024.
• Pockets of opportunity are continuing to emerge under tighter conditions. Property funds are facing redemption pressures, and a higher cost of capital is seeing more owner occupiers unlock capital via sale and leaseback transactions.
• A calmer rate environment is coaxing out capital. We anticipate investors will begin to deploy capital that is primarily opportunistic or value-add led on a selective basis.
• Investors continuing to flock to I&L assets due to their perceived stability and growth potential. Investors are migrating to related sub-sectors such as cold/dark storage.
• Number of alliances are growing as investors look at different opportunities to pool resources and mobilise funds. The complexity of accessing some specialised assets such as student housing and data centres will drive more partnerships and joint ventures between investors and developers.
• Growing acceptance of ESG as a key element of investment decision-making. A record proportion (25%) of investors surveyed have ESG-based disposal and acquisition strategies in place, particularly in EMEA and APAC – up from 10% just two years ago. We expect a wave of disposals and value-add opportunities to enter the market.

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Please find below the rebalancing results (effective 18 December 2023 start of trading) for the:

• GPR/APREA Investable 100 Index
• GPR/APREA Investable REIT 100 Index
• GPR/APREA Composite Index
• GPR/APREA Composite REIT Index (indicated with an asterisk)

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2023 is set to be the hottest year since records began in the mid-1800s. The Swiss Re Institute further warns that without climate action, the world economy could shrink by 18% in the next 30 years. Asian economies are particularly vulnerable – with China at risk of losing almost 24% of its GDP under the most severe climate scenario. In contrast, these figures can lessen and be as low as 4% if the 2015 Paris Agreement targets are met.

The cost of inaction is greater than the cost of action. With societal demands for ethical and responsible business practice intensifying, consumers, investors, and employees are increasingly scrutinising companies' ESG (environmental, social and governance) performance, favouring those that prioritise environmental stewardship, social responsibility, and sound governance.

City Developments Limited (CDL)’s ESG strategy and firm commitment to “Conserving as We Construct”, established in 1995, has positioned the company well in the transition towards sustainable business operations. Its value creation business model anchored on four key pillars — Integration, Innovation, Investment, and Impact – provides the company with a solid foundation to mitigate and adapt to unprecedented threats and challenges. With long-standing board and leadership commitment and stakeholders’ support, CDL has remained effective in achieving three deliverables: “Decarbonisation”, “Digitalisation and Innovation” and “Disclosure and Communication”.

Integrating Sustainability into a Company’s Governance Structure, Strategy and Operations

In 2012, CDL established a dedicated Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and Corporate Governance comprising independent directors, to provide strategic direction and oversight of its ESG activities. In 2016, the committee was renamed Board Sustainability Committee. The committee ensures that ESG considerations are embedded within CDL's corporate strategy and decision-making processes.

CDL’s integrated sustainability governance structure that extends both horizontally between the ESG pillars and functions and vertically across hierarchical levels up to the Group CEO and the Board

Effective corporate governance includes putting in place essential policies and guidelines across the organisation. To enhance transparency, CDL’s corporate policies and guidelines are publicly available on its corporate website, sustainability microsite and staff intranet.

Innovation and Investment: Harnessing Green Technologies and Sustainable Financing

Climate and social risks are business and investment risks. As demand for green financing grows, companies with strong ESG performance will gain better access to fast-growing ESG investment funds. In 2022, CDL established its Sustainable Investment Principles to govern ESG factors in investment decisions, aligning CDL's investments with its commitment towards a low-carbon future.

Building a green and low-carbon future is not possible without smart and innovative solutions. In 2020, CDL set up Green Building, Decarbonisation and Safety team to play a pivotal role in driving innovation and investment. The team identifies and implements cutting-edge technologies and solutions to reduce CDL's carbon footprint in construction, operations, and asset management.

Impact: Setting targets, tracking, and disclosing ESG performance

Companies can only manage what they measure. As the first Singapore company to publish a dedicated sustainability report since 2008, CDL has benefitted from the hands-on experience of producing 16 sustainability reports to-date. Using a unique blended reporting model harmonising key and relevant international reporting frameworks, standards, and approaches with the GRI Standards at its core, CDL has been able to identify material issues, set targets, track performance, and improve deliverables. This has enabled its management to take strategic and prompt action to improve, generate positive impacts and future-proof its business.

CDL’s Value Creation Model, a unique blended two-pillar sustainability reporting framework that harmonises nine key ESG reporting standards and 14 UN Sustainable Development Goals

Looking ahead, the global race to zero will continue to exert pressure on countries and companies to accelerate climate action. Sustainability-related risks and opportunities will likely increase as social, political, and cultural attitudes continue to evolve. The integration of ESG into a company’s corporate strategy is thus critical for sustained value creation.

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¹ Analysis: ‘Greater than 99% chance’ 2023 will be hottest year on record | Carbon Brief, Oct 2023
² Climate change has cost the EU €145 billion in a decade | World Economic Forum, Dec 2022
³ The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. It was adopted by 196 Parties at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, France, on 12 December 2015 and entered into force on 4 November 2016. It aims to keep the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. | United Nations Climate Change

 

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The MFIA Quarterly discusses an overview of Japan’s economy, Japan’s real estate market conditions, demography and economic growth.

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