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CBRE’s 2023 Asia Pacific Real Estate Market Outlook Mid-Year Review reviews the predictions we made at the beginning of 2023, and reveals our outlook for the rest of the year.
Our original forecasts from January were largely correct, although the subdued impact of mainland China’s re-opening has led us to push back predictions for the expected timing of the recovery by 6 to 12 months. While leasing momentum in occupier markets is strengthening, the investment volume is unlikely to recover before H1 2024.
This report explores the key trends and forecasts that will shape Asia Pacific’s commercial real estate market for the rest of the year and beyond.
Economy
Core inflation along with a stronger than expected employment market have reduced the likelihood of a hard landing in the U.S., with CBRE expecting mild negative growth to occur in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024. With the upward interest rate cycle having been prolonged, rates are likely to stay high for longer.
Investment
Asia Pacific commercial real estate investment volume is unlikely to recover before H1 2024 due to insufficient yield expansion and the higher cost of finance. Japan will remain attractive to investors on the back of low interest rates and positive carry, and hence will continue to outperform. Investment sentiment elsewhere is expected to improve once the cost of borrowing starts to come down. Korea, which was the first market to implement interest rate hikes in the current cycle, is now witnessing an increase in investment activity now that the cost of finance has begun to fall.
Office
While CBRE’s market forecast has been largely accurate, the recovery of office space demand has lagged office-based employment growth. Office occupiers retain a prudent attitude towards portfolio planning amid the challenging macroeconomic environment. Although flight to quality and a focus on green buildings remain key trends, expansionary sentiment has been subdued.
Logistics
Although logistics demand continues to gradually moderate from pandemic-era highs, regional rents displayed resilience in H1 2023, with performance bifurcating between tightly supplied markets, such as Singapore (prime) and the Pacific, and oversupplied locations. Rental growth in markets with a supply shortage will nevertheless lose momentum as demand tapers off.
Retail
The tight job market and resumption of international tourism underpinned strong consumer spending in H1 2023, boosting expansionary sentiment among retail occupiers.
Hotels
However, the slow return of mainland Chinese tourists continues to weigh on the recovery; a trend that is also impacting hotels, with the recent rise in room rates now showing signs of plateauing.
This report was originally published in https://www.cbre.com/insights/reports/2023-asia-pacific-real-estate-market-outlook-mid-year-review
Download the Report Read MoreCushman & Wakefield’s 2022-2023 Asia REIT Market Insight report investigates the growing Real Estate Investment Trust market in Asia, examining the primary drivers and state of play in key markets including Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong SAR, mainland China and India.
Overall, the Asia REIT market has experienced declines in stock prices and overall market values in 2022, predominantly due to the influence of the U.S. interest rate hikes. Despite this, the Asia REIT market has still performed better than its U.S. and European counterparts.
Key highlights:
Office: Office leasing volume slightly improved on a q-o-q basis but most deals involved renewals, relocations, and consolidations. All markets tracked by CBRE (except Seoul) saw vacancy increase over the quarter. Rents were flat despite solid growth in Sydney, Perth, Seoul and selected micro-markets in major cities of India.
Retail: Retail leasing activity continued to recover as retailers stayed cautiously optimistic. Site inspections by retailers rose to their highest levels in June since surveys began, thanks to resilient upgrading demand and requirements from new market entrants. Occupancy in core retail districts gradually recovered over the period, pushing up rents by 0.2% q-o-q.
Logistics: Subdued regional export demand, slowing manufacturing activity and weak e-commerce growth strained logistics leasing demand. New supply remained elevated while rents increased by 1.1% q-o-q, marking a second consecutive quarter of weaker growth.
Investment: With interest rates yet to reach their peak and property yield expansion insufficient to reflect the rising cost of finance, investment volume contracted by 37% y-o-y to US$19.2 billion. Cross-border investment volume totalled just US$4.1 billion. Negative carry continued to make investors hesitant to invest in Asia Pacific commercial real estate.
This report was originally published in https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/asia-pacific-figure
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The real assets sector in the Asia Pacific is undergoing rapid transformation due to technological advancements, shifting demographics, and evolving investor preferences.
Governments in the region are introducing regulatory reforms to promote sustainable development and safeguard stakeholders' interests. Despite challenges, the region's fast-growing economies present ample opportunities for smart investors, especially with the focus on alternative asset types and sustainability initiatives.
Find out more about key regulatory developments for different markets in the APREA Real Assets Bulletin. The bulletin covers ongoing challenges and the actions that are being taken to mitigate them.
Download the Report Read MoreRents in the region fell at a faster clip in Q2 2023, maintaining a year-long downward trend as Knight Frank’s Asia-Pacific Prime Office Rental Index dipped by a fourth consecutive quarter, down 1.6% quarter-on-quarter, in Q2 2023. This brings annual decline to 3.1%, which were largely due to continued soft conditions in the Chinese Mainland.
15 out of the 23 tracked cities reported stable-to-increasing rents, down from 16 in Q1 2023. Vacancies also rose marginally by a quarter of a percentage point quarter-on-quarter to 13.8%, sustaining a trend that has seen the metric rise to its highest in over 10 years since Q4 2022.
However, seen in the context of a delivery of over 4 million sf during the quarter, office demand in Asia-Pacific has held up better than those in US and Europe, with a stronger return-to-office trend. With tech occupiers continuing to rationalise employee headcount, financial and professional services firm as well as flexible space operators have made up the slack in leasing activity. Demand was also supported by a flight-to-quality trend that has pervaded across the region.
With the region entering a development phase, new supply in 2023-24 will clock in at cyclical highs, near doubling the levels in 2022, which will add close to 10% to existing stock. Consequently, market conditions across most of the region will continue to favour tenants for the rest of the year.
This report was originally published in https://apac.knightfrank.com/office-highlights
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