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Prime retail markets were severely disrupted by the pandemic with rental movements from -41.6% (Jakarta) to +2.6% (Guangzhou). In Jakarta, with strict social distancing measures and restrictions on mall opening hours, landlords were pressured to provide rental relief, and many of them slashed rents by half. In China, retail footfall recovered, and rents increased by 2.6% and 0.5% in Guangzhou, Shanghai, while softening by 2.8% and 1.5% in Beijing and Shenzhen. Vietnam’s retail markets were resilient with total retail sales of goods and services up 5.6% QoQ in Q4/2020. Rents in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi increased by 2.1% and 0.1% respectively. 

The logistics market has proven to be highly resilient and will remain a key focus in the region, with rental movements ranging from -0.4% (Shanghai) to +7.3% (Singapore). The pandemic accelerated a shift to online retail, and logistics assets were the major beneficiary. In Singapore, most warehouses are at capacity and some spillover demand has been seen in traditional factory space. In China, driven by rising domestic consumption and e-commerce, demand for modern logistics facilities is expanding rapidly. Beijing (+0.7%), Shanghai (-0.4%), Shenzhen (+2.4%) and Guangzhou (+3.0%) all entered an early upswing.

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Although office leasing activity was generally more muted in Q4 compared to other quarters in the year, it was broadly similar to Q4/2019 levels.

• Demand for office space largely emanated from tenants looking for replacement space because of the need to move out of older buildings to be redeveloped, as well as tenants with office leases due for renewal.

• Owing to the uncertainties arising from the pandemic, tenants are continuing to adopt a wait-and-see approach and looking for clarity on trends to emerge on future workplace practices before deciding on future office space requirements.

• In Q4, the office market saw relatively significant leasing deals from technology companies. These companies are expected to continue expanding their presence in Singapore, which they deem as an attractive base due to its political stability, strategic position and strong economic fundamentals.

 

 

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Overview

Global capital markets rallied at the beginning of the year, riding on expectations of a global economic recovery; investors also cheered the swearing-in of US President Joe Biden and the implications of anticipated policy reversals that could arise from the new administration. However, financial markets faltered towards the end of January, ending with a mixed performance as new coronavirus variants and delays to vaccinations prompted caution. Real estate stocks in the region failed to hold on to the rally that started in November last year. However, Japan and Singapore-listed counters managed to buck the overall trend.

 

Listed Real Estate

The GPR/APREA Listed Real Estate Composite fell at the start of the new year, underperforming both the region’s equity and REIT markets. The declines were seen across the region’s bourses with those in the emerging markets hit particularly hard. Rising infection caseloads threw recovery prospects in doubt as stocks across the major markets in emerging Southeast Asia came under pressure with governments reverting to stricter measures. In Hong Kong, authorities also imposed the city’s first lockdown to battle another wave of infection. Meanwhile, investors became wary after monetary officials in China unexpectedly slowed liquidity injections, signaling a tightening bias as the country’s recovery from the pandemic gains firmer footing.

 

REITs

Asia Pacific REITs declined in the opening month of 2021 with a marginal 0.3% loss, dragged lower by Australian REITs which fell 4% in January. However, those in Japan and Singapore bucked the regional trend to post increases on the strength of its office and industrial listings. Office S-REITs reportedly remains well poised to capture regional expansion by Chinese tech giants with the likes of Lazada and its parent company, Alibaba, as well as ByteDance, which owns TikTok, expanding its office footprint on the island.

Brookfield India Real Estate Trust, backed by Canadian asset manager Brookfield Asset Management Inc., is seeking to raise as much as US$522 million in an Indian IPO, which is slated for a February debut. Brookfield’s REIT is the third REIT launched in under two year, as acceptance of the investment product gain momentum in the country. India has been seeking to attract more REIT IPOs in recent years by tweaking rules to make the vehicle more attractive for investors and developers.

Blackstone is also believed to be floating its logistics portfolio on the Australian stock exchange, according to newspaper articles. With a 45-asset portfolio across major Australian cities, the newly created Milestone Logistics is expected to raise more than A$1 billion if the IPO is pursued.

 

Outlook

Asia Pacific REITs could be set for a broader recovery this year, with the continued global economic recovery and low-interest-rate environment a positive for the asset class. However, the pace will remain uneven across sectors. Riding on long-term structural trends, Industrial REITs have emerged as safe-haven assets in a pandemic-ravaged year. This is likely to persist as the increasing prevalence of mutated COVID-19 virus strains could refuel demand in the sector, which we note has outperformed at the height of the pandemic. The fortunes of Office REITs will be bifurcated along with geographies, with those with exposure to the region’s tech hubs likely to outperform. While recovery in the Hospitality and Retail is likely to be more nuanced, vaccine optimism has fueled confidence and likely beneficiaries from a rotation to cyclical stocks. The uncertain course of the pandemic and the trajectory of the global economic recovery, in the meantime,  will likely induce more volatility in the short term and remain a huge sentiment driver. However, with continued progress in the development and more visibility on the horizon in the deployment of vaccines, there are reasons to believe that risks in 2021 are weighted on the upside.

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Now more than ever sustainability and ESG topics are coming to the forefront across the globe from a diverse group of stakeholders including employees, customers, suppliers, communities, investors and regulators. Driven in part by the Covid-19 pandemic, there is a focus on employee health & safety, supply chain resilience, and corporate culture, along with growing concerns on climate risk to reputation and the associated impact on corporate value creation.

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