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Global Economy

  • Global growth estimated to decline by 3.5% in 2020 but expected to rise by 5.5% in 2021
  • Advanced economies likely to grow by 4.3% in 2021 on the back of the early rollout of vaccines
  • Emerging economies are expected to grow by 6.3% in 2021 on the back of a contracted base

Indian Economy 

  • India’s GDP growth for FY21 is estimated to decline by 7.7%, hit by the global pandemic and the lockdown
  • Private consumption estimated to contract by 9.5% in FY21 based on income loss, mobility restrictions, and supply constraints
  • Government consumption estimated to rise by 5.8% due to increased expenditure as part of pandemic relief packages.
  • Investment estimated to decline by 14.5% due to economic uncertainty and delay in implementation of capital projects

Outlook 

  • Consumption indicators, including FMCG, auto sales, and GST collection indicate a faster demand recovery in Q3
  • Continued momentum post-pandemic in health, pharma, telecom, and technology (e-commerce, fintech, ed-tech, etc.) owing to a significant shift in consumption patterns
  • The pandemic has led to a preference for digital services and adoption of digitalisation in many companies
  • GDP is estimated to grow at 11% in FY22 owing to robust growth in consumption and investment and lower base effect

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During 2020, private-equity investments into the Indian real estate sector declined 23% from2019. At this juncture, investors are also eyeing alternate assets, as well as projects that require last-mile funding. Investment firms and global developers are undertaking development risks in India and constructing office parks.

> We recommend investors fund stalled projects in the final stages of construction. These projects mitigate risks as project approvals are already in place.

> We also recommend investors focus on logistics and datacenter assets to take advantage of the growth in these sectors by converting them into a Real estate investment Trust (REIT)offering.

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Many institutional investors are facing their greatest challenges for many years. They are transforming their investment processes at high speed to reflect today’s imperatives, such as environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing, innovative technology, ever-shifting regulations and demands for greater transparency. Yet they must do this in a complex and unstable financial environment. I compare this challenge to changing the sails and masts of a ship as it is battered by a storm. For this report, we surveyed 200 asset owners (pension funds, insurers, sovereign wealth funds and endowments/foundations) owning assets of around $18 trillion. Reading it, I was struck by how the pandemic has further accelerated the shift to ESG. Asked for the top 3 trends that will affect their organization over the next three to five years, 62% cited either climate change or the increasing complexity of ESG measurement — far ahead of other themes such as market volatility and regulation. But it is not the only transformation. A new wave of data technologies is bringing very significant changes to investment processes. These technologies open the door to new ways of understanding markets and increasing efficiency.

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In the search for returns, investors looking at Southeast Asia are turning to value-add and core assets, even though there are some who are starting to look at distressed assets. Industrial/logistics and office remain their preferred sectors, while the hospitality sector is gaining favour. This infographic looks at key findings from the survey. 

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Report highlights:

  • Overall real estate investment sales in Singapore trebled quarter-on-quarter (QOQ) and doubled year-on-year (YOY) to S$14.4 billion (US$10.9 billion) in Q4 2020, mainly on a REIT merger.

  • Residential investment sales in Q4 jumped 92.6% QOQ and 94.2% YOY, largely due to the revival of public and private land sales, including two collective sales.
  • CapitaLand Mall Trust (CMT) acquires CapitaLand Commercial Trust (CCT')'s six office and two mixed-use developments on their merger, which played a part in the surging of commercial investment sales in Q4, at 228% QOQ and 509% YOT to S$8.69 (US$6.57) billion.
  • Industrial investments sales in Q4 saw a decline of 9.3% QOQ and 82.1% YOY, due to ESR REIT's proposed merger with Sabana REIT falling through.

With more tech companies setting up hubs and a global economic recovery, investment sales volumes are looking to pick up further in 2021, as Singapore continues to remain a favourable investment destination.

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