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• Listed real estate indexed returns in the Asia Pacific crept up in June, as investors bought into a fledgling economic recovery on the back of easing lockdowns across the region. Real estate equities and REITs, with exposure to China, including those listed in Hong Kong and Mainland China are enjoying a resurgence as investor interest increased on bargain opportunities.
• Hong Kong listed real estate equities and REITs rebounded 12.2% and 7.8%, respectively, in June, despite the start of a newly imposed national security law. Investors are looking past the debated legislation, opting to focus on renewed stability in the economy as social-distancing rules were relaxed.
• Listed Real Estate/REIT indices continued to underperform the broader markets, and were down 18% and 21%, respectively from their peaks. However, with a majority of lockdowns easing across the economies, returns could once again outperform as businesses resume amid a slew of rate cuts globally.

新冠肺炎疫情对全球经济的影响引发了激烈辩论。多数预测认为，全球经济将经 历严重衰退，程度或甚于金融危机时期； 更有不少人士认为这将是第二次世界大战以来最严重的经济衰退。争论的焦点在于经济复苏模式。是否会出现V形反弹？还是U形、L形或W形？甚至有预测认 为会出现像耐克品牌标志那样的“对勾 形”复苏。 随着各国陆续放松封锁禁令但继续鼓励社交隔离，新冠肺炎疫情的长期影响仍有待观察。许多人士认为世界将大为不同。

New Launches

• H1 2020 new launch supply declined by 56% compared to H2 2019. The nationwide lockdown imposed from the last week of March severely impacted the real estate sector, resulting in muted launches.

• Q2 2020 was the most impacted quarter with launches being the lowest since 2013. During this quarter, new launch supply declined by 97% over Q1 2020 and 98% over the same period last year.

• The share of affordable housing in H1 2020 new launches was around 36% of the total supply. This decreased from 41% in H2 2019. In absolute terms, the half-yearly decline in this segment was around 61%. No new supply was added in the affordable segment in Q2 2020.

The impact Covid-19 will have on the global economy is being fiercely debated. Most forecasters agree that there will be a global recession deeper than the global financial crisis (GFC) and many expect it to be the deepest since the Second World War. The debate is around the shape of the recovery. Will there be a V-shaped rebound? Or is a U, L or W shape more likely? We’re even hearing discussions about ‘a Nike swoosh-shaped’ recovery. As countries come out of their strict lockdowns but social distancing is still encouraged, the long-term impact of Covid-19 is yet to be seen. Many believe the world will emerge as a different place.