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  • Operational challenges, combined with increased concerns on a second wave of infections in Asia, continued to result in significant underperformance of hospitality, retail and residential sectors in the region. According to STR, Asia Pacific hotel occupancy decreased to 41.2% in February, while RevPAR dropped 36.5% to $44.27, albeit some improvements were reported in March in the hotel sector in China stemming from the resumption of corporate travel.
  • Australia was worst hit among larger markets, as its economy entered a period of “hibernation” to contain the spread of COVID-19.  The Australian economy had avoided recession for almost 30 years, but in 2020 the economy will be in recession.  Taiwan real estate equities and REITS were least impacted by the volatile global macro backdrop especially as it has kept the virus under control.
  • Industrial and healthcare sectors were the only sectors that witnessed positive one-year returns through March. Industrial stocks have benefited from the growth in ecommerce as online orders surged.  Across the region, fiscal policy is working alongside monetary policy to cushion the COVID-19 blow, which should help limit downside risks. 
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  • 运营方面的挑战,再加上对亚洲第二波感染浪潮的忧虑日益加 剧,继续导致该地区的旅游,零售和住宅部门的表现严重不佳。 根据STR的数据,2月份亚太地区酒店入住率下降至41.2%。 尽管3月份中国酒店业因公司旅行的恢复而有所改善, 每间可 用客房收益(RevPAR)仍下降36.5%至44.27美元。
  • 在较大市值的市场中,澳大利亚受到的打击最大,因为其经济 进入了“冬眠”时期,以遏制COVID-19的传播。澳大利亚经济 近30年来一直避免衰退,但到2020年,经济将陷入衰退。受 全球宏观经济动荡的影响,台湾房地产股票和房地产投资信托 基金受到的影响最小,尤其是因为该地区病情受到良好的控制。
  • 直到3月,工业和医疗保健行业是仅有的在过去一年获得正收 益的行业。随着在线订单的激增,工业股票已从电子商务的增 长中受益。在整个地区,财政政策与货币政策一起在缓解 COVID-19所带来的负面压力,这将有助于限制下行风险。
     
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The impact of the pandemic has been pervasive with economic dislocations now reverberating across the world, hitting consumption, tourism, and supply chains. Financial market volatility has also increased with equity prices dragged lower through 2020. While REITs have not been spared in the current selloff, the recent price drops have upped the distribution yields of the region’s REITs, which rose to 4.4% in February, from 4.0% in January, according to the GPR/APREA Composite REIT Index. Yields for Singapore REITs rose 0.3 percentage points to 5.3% in the same period.

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The novel coronavirus outbreak began in mid-Dec 2019 in the seventh-largest city of China - Wuhan, home to over 11 million people and the capital of Hubei province. The first suspected cases were reported on 31 December 2019, and to date, over 40,000 infections have been confirmed with a death toll of over 900. While scientists do not know how lethal the new coronavirus is, they agreed the virus is spreading more like influenza than Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (“SARS”) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (“MERS”). 

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总体而言,写字楼面临的是疫情和经济环境综合效应的影响。疫情对写字楼的 影响相对于购物中心、百货商场等商业物业有明显的滞后效应。餐饮业、旅游 业、零售业等服务业先受影响,之后可能传导到某些生产服务业。影响的程度更 多取决于本次疫情时间的长短。经济有自己运行的规律,传导需要时间。疫情影 响到写字楼需求端,以2003年非典及2008年经济危机的经验来看,滞后的规 律是通常是6个月左右的时间。如果说中美贸易战是长期影响的话,希望疫情 的影响是短期波动的,但疫情导致中小企业的经营压力对于部分写字楼需求造 成的负面影响可能会持续。 

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