GPR / APREA Index

Overview

Asia Pacific equities reversed two months of consecutive declines to record their best monthly performance since December last year. The benchmark, which has been roiled by China’s regulatory crackdown in sectors from technology, education and property, rose 2.5% in August to outperform the regional property counters. Investors took heart at comments made from the Fed’s closely watched annual Jackson Hole meeting, after the Fed Chair reiterated that tapering does not mean tightening. The region’s markets also cheered after the Chinese central bank made its biggest weekly cash injection into the banking system since February. Still, the bounce came after July’s pummeling as it continued to lag the region’s property counters year-to-date with just 2.4% returned, as compared to the region’s real estate and REIT benchmarks tracked by GPR/APREA, which had risen 5.5% and 10.7,% respectively.

Overview

Asia Pacific equities declined by close to 5% in July to surrender all its gains this year, weighed down by the Chinese government’s regulatory crackdown on the education, internet and property sectors. The tech heavy total return index, as tracked by MSCI, fell to its lowest since November last year.  While property related counters were not spared, it fared relatively better as the region’s REITs, with a more diverse geographical base, supported real estate indices. Risks were also firmly on the downside as the rapid rise in infections intensified in the region, clouding the prospects of an economic recovery. The Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates at near zero was largely priced in but the lack of any clear conviction to taper its bond purchases propped up markets, indicating that a monthly pace of US$120 billion will be maintained until substantial further progress had been made on employment and inflation.

Listed Real Estate

The wider GPR/APREA Listed Real Estate tumbled in July, as double-digit declines notched by regional heavyweight, China, proved too much of a drag. Hong Kong stocks were not spared. Support from the region’s other major markets of Australia and Japan were scant this time round as the resurgence of infections in the region hit sentiment.

India’s stocks, however, bucked the regional trend to rise by over 8%. A steady dip in Covid-19 cases rising vaccination rates and relaxation of curbs boosted sentiment on Indian stocks. The pandemic, which have underscored the importance of homes amid the remote working trend, leading to a rise in the demand for apartments, as buyers hunted for upgrades. Favourable regulations, such as RERA and the Model Tenancy Act, and the lowest home loan interest rates in years as well as stamp duty reductions in certain states also fueled a rally for the country’s realty stocks.

REITs

Asia Pacific REITs rose in July, with the GPR/APREA Composite REIT Index building on its rally to record a ninth consecutive monthly rise; the benchmark rose above its January peak last year for the second month running. As expected, the resurgence in infections has boosted the Industrial sector to register another strong month while Retail made up the negative end of the spectrum. Regionally, industrial and logistics REITs are outperformers as investors continue to pursue a flight-to-safety trend.

Across markets, gains were registered by most of the regional heavyweights, with Singapore leading the pack. Rapidly increasing vaccinations rates on the island have provided visibility to the government’s plans to gradually open its economy. However, Australian REITs declined as the renewed lockdown in several cities snapped a four-month winning streak for the country.

Meanwhile, Filinvest REIT Corp is set to become the third REIT to list in the Philippines, having set the final subscription price for its IPO at PHP7.00 per share. The stock is slated to debut on the Philippine Stock Exchange by mid-August. The region continues to boast an impressive pipeline of potential REIT listings, with 8-10 expected for the rest of the year.

Outlook

As base effects wane, rising caseloads across several countries in the Asia Pacific have dimmed the outlook for the regional economy. However, REITs have continued to remain resilient, backstopped by the Industrial sector as well as markets that have progressively clocked higher vaccination rates which will make the easing of restrictions more tenable. With long-dated treasury yields at their lowest since February, markets are now more inclined to believe that the specter of surging inflation will be less likely for now. The state of play has clearly shifted to policy risks in China as well as the threat from the fast-moving Delta variant. With central banks and the Fed likely to stick with its easy monetary policies due to a choppy recovery, there will invariably be sustained interest in dividend-rich stocks. As long as the pandemic continues to linger, investors will also continue to seek out the structural plays of the industrial and logistics sectors.

Overview

Stock markets dived in mid-June when the US Fed indicated possible quantitative tightening and a potential interest rate hike by 2023, as investors remained jittery of rising inflationary pressures and its implications on monetary policies. The region’s equity market also fell on concerns amid the strengthening greenback. Further weakness was also evident as the resurgence of outbreaks, which had governments reviving restrictions across several economies, threatened to derail recovery momentum in the region. However, property stocks across the region largely bucked the trend, underpinned by accommodative monetary conditions and sustained interest in dividend-rich stocks amid a yield-starved environment.

Listed Real Estate

Despite outperforming the region’s equities, June was another tepid month for non-REIT real estate stocks in the region with the wider GPR/APREA Listed Real Estate Composite barely staying in positive territory. In a repeat of May, gains in Australia, Hong Kong and Japan just managed to offset caution in the other regional heavyweights of China and Singapore. China’s real estate stocks underperformed for a third month running as policy overhang continued to plague sentiment, with policymakers moving to restrict credit growth and stepped up interventions in markets.

Hong Kong’s shares continued to maintain its positive run, driven by a notable pickup in property sales and prices as well as optimism surrounding it e-voucher scheme, which is designed to boost local consumption. Blackstone’s HK$23.7 billion bid for HKSE-listed Soho China also signaled sustained investor interest. Stocks in India also gained as the country’s central bank continued to maintain  interest rates at record lows.

REITs

The GPR/APREA Composite REIT Index finished strongly in June, outperforming regional equities both in June and for the second quarter. While renewed infection surges could have spurred interest in safe-haven Industrial REITs, the gains were broad based with even the risk-on sectors registering gains. A weakened Japanese yen during the period also spurred investments into J-REITs. Separately, the prospects of an eventual re-opening of its economy and borders supported the performance of Hong Kong REITs.

China’s first batch of REITs made a rousing stock market debut  registering initial gains, as the nine listed REITs – five in Shanghai and four in Shenzhen – drew interest from Chinese retail investors. The nine REITs reportedly raised over RMB30 billion with its retail tranches 10-times over subscribed. For now, C-REITs are backed only by infrastructure assets and offered as units in a fund. But the trial will be closely watched – the success of which could eventually seed measures for further liberalization.

Meanwhile, the Philippine REIT pipeline remains on track. Hot on the heels of Filinvest’s planned third quarter debut of its REIT, the country’s largest office landlord – Megaworld – is looking to unveil the nation’s largest offering that is seeking to raise as much as PHP27.3 billion. Data centre giant, Digital Realty Trust, is also considering an offering in Singapore that could raise up to US$400 million which could come as early as this year. The share sale would tap growing investor interest in data centres. The region’s expanding REIT universe is continuing apace with up to 10 new listings that could occur in the second half of the year.

Outlook

While inflationary pressures will continue to introduce volatility, monetary conditions are expected to remain loose as central banks remain cognizant that an economic recovery remains far from certain. Investors are also choosing to remain focused on the longer term. Countries in the region are now training their sights on increasing vaccination rates, raising the prospects of an accelerated re-opening of its economies. Institutional interests in the region’s commercial real estate have continued to be robust, as investors, awakened by prospects of more favourable entry prices especially in gateway markets, chase deals. The region’s REITs, in the first six months of the year, have returned close to 9.0% to overtake equities, indicating a gradual reversion to long-run fundamentals.