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Overview
Stock markets dived in mid-June when the US Fed indicated possible quantitative tightening and a potential interest rate hike by 2023, as investors remained jittery of rising inflationary pressures and its implications on monetary policies. The region’s equity market also fell on concerns amid the strengthening greenback. Further weakness was also evident as the resurgence of outbreaks, which had governments reviving restrictions across several economies, threatened to derail recovery momentum in the region. However, property stocks across the region largely bucked the trend, underpinned by accommodative monetary conditions and sustained interest in dividend-rich stocks amid a yield-starved environment.
Listed Real Estate
Despite outperforming the region’s equities, June was another tepid month for non-REIT real estate stocks in the region with the wider GPR/APREA Listed Real Estate Composite barely staying in positive territory. In a repeat of May, gains in Australia, Hong Kong and Japan just managed to offset caution in the other regional heavyweights of China and Singapore. China’s real estate stocks underperformed for a third month running as policy overhang continued to plague sentiment, with policymakers moving to restrict credit growth and stepped up interventions in markets.
Hong Kong’s shares continued to maintain its positive run, driven by a notable pickup in property sales and prices as well as optimism surrounding it e-voucher scheme, which is designed to boost local consumption. Blackstone’s HK$23.7 billion bid for HKSE-listed Soho China also signaled sustained investor interest. Stocks in India also gained as the country’s central bank continued to maintain interest rates at record lows.
REITs
The GPR/APREA Composite REIT Index finished strongly in June, outperforming regional equities both in June and for the second quarter. While renewed infection surges could have spurred interest in safe-haven Industrial REITs, the gains were broad based with even the risk-on sectors registering gains. A weakened Japanese yen during the period also spurred investments into J-REITs. Separately, the prospects of an eventual re-opening of its economy and borders supported the performance of Hong Kong REITs.
China’s first batch of REITs made a rousing stock market debut registering initial gains, as the nine listed REITs – five in Shanghai and four in Shenzhen – drew interest from Chinese retail investors. The nine REITs reportedly raised over RMB30 billion with its retail tranches 10-times over subscribed. For now, C-REITs are backed only by infrastructure assets and offered as units in a fund. But the trial will be closely watched – the success of which could eventually seed measures for further liberalization.
Meanwhile, the Philippine REIT pipeline remains on track. Hot on the heels of Filinvest’s planned third quarter debut of its REIT, the country’s largest office landlord – Megaworld – is looking to unveil the nation’s largest offering that is seeking to raise as much as PHP27.3 billion. Data centre giant, Digital Realty Trust, is also considering an offering in Singapore that could raise up to US$400 million which could come as early as this year. The share sale would tap growing investor interest in data centres. The region’s expanding REIT universe is continuing apace with up to 10 new listings that could occur in the second half of the year.
Outlook
While inflationary pressures will continue to introduce volatility, monetary conditions are expected to remain loose as central banks remain cognizant that an economic recovery remains far from certain. Investors are also choosing to remain focused on the longer term. Countries in the region are now training their sights on increasing vaccination rates, raising the prospects of an accelerated re-opening of its economies. Institutional interests in the region’s commercial real estate have continued to be robust, as investors, awakened by prospects of more favourable entry prices especially in gateway markets, chase deals. The region’s REITs, in the first six months of the year, have returned close to 9.0% to overtake equities, indicating a gradual reversion to long-run fundamentals.
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亚太股市5月份再度遇冷，由于物价上涨可能加剧通胀，投资者仍然担心持续上升的通胀压力。同时，亚太许多国家，包括印度、日本，和部分东南亚国家，也面临着新一轮的疫情威胁。感染人数在之前防疫工作颇为成功的新加坡、台湾和越南激增，这也让投资者感到不安。亚太地区疫苗普及速度落后于全球，对疫情的担忧将导致延迟放松边境管制，从而推迟经济复苏。在各种因素的影响下，亚太地产股表现逊于亚太股票和债券指数。
亚太上市房地产公司股票
GPR/APREA上市房地产综合指数勉强维持在正值，澳大利亚、香港、日本略有盈利，勉强抵消中国和新加坡权重股的跌幅。继一场在北京召开的会议后，中国地产股开始下跌。会议考虑通过征收房产税，以遏制房地产投机行为，因此打击了市场信心。
然而，由于投资者买入升值强劲的人民币，加上美联储承诺的货币宽松政策，香港股票连续两个月收高。尽管印度新冠感染病例位居全球首位，但地产公司Indiabulls和大使馆集团的合并直接推动了印度股票本月斩获最高回报率。监管部门批准了这项并购，这也造就了又一家印度最大的上市房地产公司之一。
亚太REITs
5月，GPR/APREA综合REIT指数创纪录地继续保持增长。然而，亚太大部分REIT市场表现都不如股票。唯独香港例外，回报率最高达3%以上。从各个版块来看，主要地产板块收益表现也较为平淡。新加坡REITs也位于地区内拖后腿的行列，因为政府加强了管制，以限制疫情感染人数的增加。尽管如此，新加坡工业REITs管理资产继续扩大规模，今年已公布超50亿新元的重大收购。
亚太REIT市场也迎来了另一个重大发展机遇。众人期待已久的中国公募REIT市场已拉开帷幕，此前监管部门已批准了第一批REITs，包含九只股票，预计将为基础设施项目筹集300亿人民币。然而，与其他市场不同，中国REITs目前只以基础设施为支撑。符合条件的底层资产不包括商业地产，商场或办公楼等。同时，顺丰REIT成功在香港交易所上市，成为香港第一支以物流为主的REIT。
亚太地区的REITs并购活动也更加活跃。除了目前日本境内对景顺日本办公REIT的争夺外，澳洲证交所上市的澳大利亚联合医疗地产信托也成为了加拿大西北医疗地产信托和新加坡政府投资公司新加坡主权财富基金的竞相收购目标。
前景展望
资源价格和航运成本的上涨可能使政策性加息比预期来得更早，而通胀问题仍将是投资者的主要关注点。不过，在美联储评论说基于基数效应的价格飙升是暂时性的后，美国国债收益率在5月份有所回落。投资者认为在收益率达到顶峰，债券买入量减少之前，美联储还能容忍更高的价格。在经济持续复苏的背景下，亚太REITs将继续受益于持续的低息环境，以及机构投资者对房地产的强劲需求。
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Asia Pacific stock markets endured another tepid month in May as investors remained focused on rising inflationary pressures, as a surge in commodity prices threatens to drive up inflation. The region also contended with a fresh wave of Covid-19 infections across several countries including India, Japan and parts of Southeast Asia. A spike in caseloads in Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam, which had the most success in curbing infection levels, also unnerved investors. Vaccine rollouts, at rates lagging those worldwide are compounding concerns that protracted border controls will delay an economic recovery. Property stocks across the region reacted by underperforming both the region’s equity and bond indices.
Listed Real Estate
The GPR/APREA Listed Real Estate Composite barely remained in positive territory, with marginal gains in Australia, Hong Kong and Japan just managing to offset declines in the other regional heavyweights of China and Singapore. China real estate stocks slipped, after a meeting held in Beijing contemplated a property tax to rein in rampant speculation in the housing market dragged on sentiment.
However, Hong Kong shares closed higher for a second month in a row as investors bought into the strong Chinese currency and the US Federal Reserve’s commitment towards monetary accommodation. Despite grappling with the world’s highest infection caseload, India stocks scored the highest returns as the merger of Indiabulls Real Estate and Embassy Group gained momentum. Regulatory pathways cleared for the merger will create one of India’s largest listed real estate companies.
REITs
The GPR/APREA Composite REIT Index held on to record another positive month in May. However, most REIT markets in the Asia Pacific underperformed equities. Hong Kong was the exception, clocking the highest returns at just over 3%. Sector-wise, gains were also tepid across the main property segments. S-REITs were among the underperformers in the region, as the country heightened restrictions over the increase in infections. Nonetheless, industrial S-REITs continue to increase their assets under management, with significant acquisitions valued at over S$5 billion announced this year.
A significant development also greeted REIT markets in the region. China’s long-awaited public REITs market kicked off, after regulators approved the first batch of its REITs, comprising nine stocks that will raise an estimated RMB30 billion for infrastructure projects. However, unlike other markets, Chinese REITs are only backed by infrastructure. For now, eligible underlying assets do not include commercial properties such as shopping malls or offices. Meanwhile, Hong Kong saw its first logistics-focused REIT list, after SF REIT successfully debuted on the territory’s stock exchange.
The region is also experiencing heightened M&A activity in the REIT space. In addition to the current tussle for Invesco Office J-REIT in Japan, ASX-listed Australian Unity Healthcare Property Trust has also been the target of a takeover bid by Canada’s NorthWest Healthcare Properties REIT and Singapore sovereign wealth fund, GIC.
Outlook
As rising resource prices and escalating shipping costs heighten the possibility of an earlier-than-expected policy rate hike, inflation will continue to be a dominant theme for investors. However, treasury yields have retreated in May, after the Fed commented that such price spikes, that stem from base effects, will be transitory. Investors are buying into the view that the Fed will tolerate higher prices before hiking rates and tapering bond purchases. Amid the ongoing economic recovery, Asia Pacific REITs will continue to benefit from the sustained low interest rate environment and strong demand for real estate investments among institutional buyers.
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再通胀交易在第一季度实现快速增长后，而今却由于美国失业救济申请人数意外激增，从而陷入停滞。新一波的疫情浪潮，尤其是在亚洲，也促使投资者转向避险资产，导致4月份10年期国债收益率短暂跌至一个多月来的最低点。美联储在本月底的定期会议上决定维持利率不变。尽管经济正在复苏，美联储仍然重申在未来短期内，将继续推行高度宽松的货币政策。亚太股票市场反应乐观，继上月下跌后，摩根士丹利亚太股价指数已重回正值。
亚太上市房地产公司股票
尽管GPR/APREA上市房地产综合指数仍处于正值，但由于中国和日本权重股的下跌，综合指数涨幅并不显著。其中，中国股市跌幅最大，由于数据显示房产价格仍在持续上涨，因此，投资者担忧监管将施加更大的压力。中国许多城市3月新房房价增速都达到了过去7个月来的最高点。距离奥运会只剩三个月，日本宣布进入第三轮紧急状态，以抑制疫情发展，而这也打击了日本国内的市场信心。
亚太REITs
大部分亚太市场表现良好，GPR/APREA综合房地产投资信托指数延续了2月以来的涨势，本月月底收高。亚太REITs连续第二个月跑赢股票。
其中，日本REITs引领涨幅，保持2020年11月以来的连胜势头，因为机构对日本房地产资产的兴趣增加，从而推动了REITs的表现。喜达屋资本拟计划收购日本景顺资产管理公司的REIT，初始报价即溢价超10%。预期未来报价将上涨，投资者竞相抬价抢购。此外，日本央行承诺每年继续拨出高达1800亿日元的资金购买日本REITs。低利率和对经济复苏的预期也给澳大利亚市场带来了信心，收益上涨。
同时，巴基斯坦证券与交易委员会，即该国的市场监管机构，正在逐步放松对REIT的监管，取消对提供竣工证明文件的强制性要求，该要求被许多投资者认为阻碍了REIT的发展。继2015年上市首支REIT后，这个南亚国家还未推出任何新的REITs。
亚太REITs行业正处于持续扩张中。中国最大的快递供应商，顺丰控股有限公司，计划将三个总价值61亿港币的物流中心纳入到一个在香港上市的离岸REIT中。顺丰已在4月向香港交易所提供了顺丰REIT的上市申请。地产开发商和管理公司丰树投资也计划在新加坡上市学生住房类REIT，预计能筹资约10亿新元。
前景展望
距离疫情爆发已一年有余，亚太REITs已逆转颓势，超过了去年1月份疫情爆发前的最高点。然而，在收益方面仍然不如亚太股票。
至于未来，疫情再度爆发的压力与通胀都为市场前景蒙上了阴影。尽管如此，后疫情时代的经济复苏仍将逐步提速，这将对亚太REITs带来积极影响。在当前的低利率环境下，机构投资者对房产资产的兴趣不减，而在他们的带动下，商业房地产市场也更加活跃，预计这也将有利于REITs的估值。
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After rising rapidly in the first quarter of the year, the reflation trade hit a pause amid an unexpected rise in new claims for unemployment benefits in the US. Renewed waves of Covid infection caseloads, particularly in Asia, also prompted a flight to safety with yields on 10-year Treasuries briefly hitting their lowest in over a month during April. The Fed, in a scheduled meeting at the end of the month, left rates unchanged. Despite a recovering economy, it reiterated that highly accommodative monetary policy will continue for the foreseeable future. Stock markets in the region reacted optimistically, with MSCI’s regional equity gauge back in positive territory after dipping in the previous month.
Listed Real Estate
While the GPR/APREA Listed Real Estate Composite remained in positive territory, gains were largely modest, stymied by declines in regional heavyweights – China and Japan. China stocks fell the most, as investors remained wary of regulatory pressures following data that showed sustained property price increases. New home prices in March rose at the fastest pace in seven months, with increases noted in more cities. A third state of emergency declared in Japan, in a gambit to counter infection cases three months ahead of the Olympics, hurt sentiment in the country.
REITs
Supported by positive performances in most markets, the GPR/APREA Composite REIT Index ended the month higher, sustaining a run from February. The region’s REITs outperformed equities for the second month in a row.
J-REITs led the region, maintaining a winning streak from November 2020, as increased institutional interest in Japan’s real estate assets drove performance. Starwood Capital tabled a proposal to acquire Invesco Office J-REIT, with an initial offer price that valued the REIT at a premium of over 10%. Anticipating subsequent improved offers, the stock was quickly bid up by investors. Additionally, the BoJ maintained a pledge to buy J-REITS at an annual pace of up to ¥180 billion. In Australia, positive sentiment supported by low-interest rates and expectations of an economic recovery, fueled gains.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s markets regulator Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan, is working on easing REIT regulations, removing the need for a mandatory building completion certificate which many investors viewed as a hurdle. The South Asian country has not seen any REITs after its only listing debuted in 2015.
The region’s REIT universe continued to expand. S.F. Holding, China’s largest listed courier provider, plans to inject three logistics centres worth HK$6.1 billion into an offshore REIT to be listed in Hong Kong. A listing application for SF Real Estate Investment Trust was submitted to Hong Kong’s bourse operator in April. Mapletree Investments, a property developer and manager, is also exploring listing a student housing REIT in Singapore that could raise about S$1 billion.
Outlook
More than a year since the pandemic erupted, the region’s REITs have retraced its decline to surpass the pre-pandemic high recorded in January last year. However, they continue to lag Asia Pacific equities in returns.
Looking ahead, a flare-up of coronavirus pandemic in the region and sustained inflationary pressures continue to cloud the outlook for markets. Still, the post-pandemic economic recovery will likely gradually gather pace, which should be positive for the region’s REITs. Increased activities in the commercial real estate market, led by institutional investors suggesting continued interest in real estate assets under the current low-interest-rate environment, is expected to provide support to REITs’ valuations.
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