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Overview
After rising rapidly in the first quarter of the year, the reflation trade hit a pause amid an unexpected rise in new claims for unemployment benefits in the US. Renewed waves of Covid infection caseloads, particularly in Asia, also prompted a flight to safety with yields on 10-year Treasuries briefly hitting their lowest in over a month during April. The Fed, in a scheduled meeting at the end of the month, left rates unchanged. Despite a recovering economy, it reiterated that highly accommodative monetary policy will continue for the foreseeable future. Stock markets in the region reacted optimistically, with MSCI’s regional equity gauge back in positive territory after dipping in the previous month.
Listed Real Estate
While the GPR/APREA Listed Real Estate Composite remained in positive territory, gains were largely modest, stymied by declines in regional heavyweights – China and Japan. China stocks fell the most, as investors remained wary of regulatory pressures following data that showed sustained property price increases. New home prices in March rose at the fastest pace in seven months, with increases noted in more cities. A third state of emergency declared in Japan, in a gambit to counter infection cases three months ahead of the Olympics, hurt sentiment in the country.
REITs
Supported by positive performances in most markets, the GPR/APREA Composite REIT Index ended the month higher, sustaining a run from February. The region’s REITs outperformed equities for the second month in a row.
J-REITs led the region, maintaining a winning streak from November 2020, as increased institutional interest in Japan’s real estate assets drove performance. Starwood Capital tabled a proposal to acquire Invesco Office J-REIT, with an initial offer price that valued the REIT at a premium of over 10%. Anticipating subsequent improved offers, the stock was quickly bid up by investors. Additionally, the BoJ maintained a pledge to buy J-REITS at an annual pace of up to ¥180 billion. In Australia, positive sentiment supported by low-interest rates and expectations of an economic recovery, fueled gains.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s markets regulator Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan, is working on easing REIT regulations, removing the need for a mandatory building completion certificate which many investors viewed as a hurdle. The South Asian country has not seen any REITs after its only listing debuted in 2015.
The region’s REIT universe continued to expand. S.F. Holding, China’s largest listed courier provider, plans to inject three logistics centres worth HK$6.1 billion into an offshore REIT to be listed in Hong Kong. A listing application for SF Real Estate Investment Trust was submitted to Hong Kong’s bourse operator in April. Mapletree Investments, a property developer and manager, is also exploring listing a student housing REIT in Singapore that could raise about S$1 billion.
Outlook
More than a year since the pandemic erupted, the region’s REITs have retraced its decline to surpass the pre-pandemic high recorded in January last year. However, they continue to lag Asia Pacific equities in returns.
Looking ahead, a flare-up of coronavirus pandemic in the region and sustained inflationary pressures continue to cloud the outlook for markets. Still, the post-pandemic economic recovery will likely gradually gather pace, which should be positive for the region’s REITs. Increased activities in the commercial real estate market, led by institutional investors suggesting continued interest in real estate assets under the current low-interest-rate environment, is expected to provide support to REITs’ valuations.
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全球债券市场2021年开局惨淡，一季度投资者收益率跌至2016年第四季度以来的最低点，同时，美国10年期国债基准收益率上升超80个基点。由于债券利率在三月一路攀升，达一年来最高水平，因此，在疫情爆发前，任何跌势都不会持续太久。收益率飙升主要得益于亚太股票市场投资者对过高估价的担忧。
从疫情中获益最多的科技股在此次抛售浪潮中首当其冲，尤其是受中国当局在国内的反垄断措施影响。而投资基金Archegos Capital的崩塌也让金融股感到紧张，使得该部门流失数十亿的资金。这也让亚太地产股指数高于总体股票基准。
亚太上市房地产公司股票
GPR/APREA综合上市房地产指数反弹1.8%，其中，澳大利亚地产股在合订信托的推动下，在亚太地区的增长中处于领先地位。澳大利亚经济在2020年最后一个季度的GDP增长高于预期，随着管制放宽，住宅价格也持续上涨。日本股票的表现也优于大盘，主要得益于其最大的开发商，以及防疫措施放宽对市场信心的提升。同时，中国股市的涨幅受到限制，投资者预计政策支持力度将减小，有迹象显示中国经济复苏正在进一步提速。
继合并其办公和零售REITs后，凯德集团紧接着又宣布一项企业重组计划，将其开发部门私有化，并将其投资管理部门独立为专门的基金管理和创收业务。作为一家独立上市的公司，凯德投资管理将成为亚洲资产管理规模最大的房地产投资管理公司，以及全球第三大上市房地产投资管理公司，仅次于布鲁克菲尔德资产管理与百仕通。
亚太REITs
亚太REITs三月份上涨1.9%，地区内主要市场普遍上行。除了澳大利亚多元化和工业信托收益率表现强劲外，日本REITs也凭借其住宅REITs表现优异，使得该版块在3月份创下亚太地区最高回报率。由于缺乏推动收益上涨的因素，零售和酒店业失去增长势头。
同时，在房地产开发商Filinvest向菲律宾证券交易所有关部门登记募股后，不到一年时间内，菲律宾已准备推出其第三支REIT。该REIT主要由Filinvest统筹发展的某商业区业务外包流程办公资产组成，如果允许超额配售，那么此次发行预计能筹集149亿比索。
自去年年底以来，投资逐渐恢复活力，新加坡上市REITs仍在积极寻找投资跨境资产的机会，并于今年第一季度达成25亿美元的交易量，收购总额有望赶超去年。值得注意的是，丰树物流信托首次进军印度，以大约8440万新元的价格收购了位于普纳的两家仓库。腾飞REIT则是最大的跨境投资者，贡献超17亿美元，其中包括腾飞REIT在欧洲收购的首个数据中心。
前景展望
在疫情爆发一年后，亚太地产股已从三月低潮中强势反弹。尽管亚太REITs表现显著优于大盘房地产指数，为投资者带来接近38%的回报率，但仍然落后于亚太股市。
由于基数效应放大通胀预期，短期内经济前景仍存在不确定性。再加上由于变异病毒导致病例数量激增，无疑也为未来增添了更多的不确定性。供应短缺和大宗商品价格上涨预示着持续但不平衡，甚至是混乱的经济复苏局面，投资者将继续面对债券收益率上升和政策收紧带来的影响。
然而，亚太REITs所提供的收益率差仍然可观，在一些发达市场通常能接近200个基点，甚至更高。随着经济活动常态化，持续的通货再膨胀贸易或与全球经济复苏节奏保持一致。REITs无疑将得益于这一背景，进一步上涨。如果在经济有序回升的前提下，通胀压力卷土重来，那么不可避免地需要权衡二者间的利弊。
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Global bond markets endured a harrowing start to 2021, ending one of the worst quarters for investors since the last quarter of 2016 as the benchmark yield on 10-year Treasuries rose by over 80 bps. Any pullback was short-lived as bond yields resumed their climb through March to hit their highest in over a year, before the pandemic struck. The surge in yields weighed on the region’s equity markets, as investors turn skittish on lofty valuations.
Tech stocks which have benefitted most as pandemic plays bore the brunt of the sell off, not least helped by a crackdown on anti-trust behavior by Chinese authorities in its own backyard. Financial stocks were also rattled by the collapse of investment fund Archegos Capital, leaving the sector exposed to losses in billions. This lifted the region’s property stocks above the broad equity benchmark.
Listed Real Estate
The GPR/APREA Listed Real Estate Composite returned 1.8% with Australian property counters leading the region, powered by its stapled trusts. The Australian economy had posted better-than-expected GDP growth in the last quarter of 2020, as restrictions eased, with sustained gains in residential prices. Japanese stocks also outperformed on the back of their largest developers, with the lifting of emergency measures a sentiment booster. Meanwhile, gains were capped in China, as investors anticipated policy support to be scaled back with signs that the recovery is further gaining ground.
Hot on the heels after the merger of its office and retail REITs, CapitaLand announced a corporate restructure to take private its development arm private and carve out its investment management arm as a pure-play fund-management and fee-income business. The separately listed entity, CapitaLand Investment Management, will rank as the biggest real estate investment manager in Asia in terms of AUM, and the third-biggest listed globally – behind Brookfield Asset Management and Blackstone.
REITs
Asia Pacific REITs climbed 1.9% in March with broad-based gains across the region’s major markets. In addition to the strong returns of Australia’s diversified and industrial trusts, J-REITs also delivered on the strength of their Residential REITs, which powered the sector to record the region’s highest return in March. With a lack of catalysts to fuel further gains, Retail and Hospitality lost momentum.
Meanwhile, the Philippines is on track to debut its third REIT in under a year, after developer Filinvest registered its offering with the country’s exchange authorities. Comprising mostly of BPO office assets in a business district it master-developed, the offering is expected to raise PHP14.9 billion, if the over allotment option is exercised.
With investment activity roaring back to life late last year, Singapore-listed REITs continued to maintain their momentum in the hunt for cross border assets. Total acquisitions made by the sector is on track to surpass last year’s, following US$2.5 billion deals struck in the first quarter. Notably, Mapletree Logistics Trust made its maiden foray into India, acquiring two warehouses in the city of Pune for approximately S$84.4m. Ascendas REIT was the biggest spender, investing over US$1.7 billion, including the REIT’s first data centre acquisitions in Europe.
Outlook
One year since the pandemic erupted, the region’s property stocks have bounced back strongly from their March lows. While the region’s REITs have notably outpaced the wider real estate index, registering close to 38% returns for investors, they continue to lag Asia Pacific equities.
The near-term outlook will remain volatile, as base effects amplify inflationary expectations. Additionally, the recent surge in caseloads from new virus variants will no doubt contribute to uncertainty ahead. With the spectre of supply shortages and rising commodity prices signaling a sustained, albeit uneven and at times messy, economic recovery, investors will continue to grapple with the implications of higher bond yields as well as looming policy tightening.
Still, spreads offered by the region’s REITs remain decent, typically close to 200 bps and higher in some developed markets. As economic activity normalizes, the ongoing reflation trade can be consistent with a synchronous global recovery. REITs will undoubtedly benefit from this backdrop to further deliver on price gains. The return of inflationary pressures, if orderly, being the inevitable trade off.
Download the Report Read MoreStock markets in the Asia Pacific endured bouts of volatility in February, triggering flashbacks to the taper tantrum that roiled the region back in 2013. The US 10-year Treasury yields rose to a one-year high, as massive government stimulus is seen to fuel higher economic growth and inflationary pressures; the low rates currently pursued by the Fed is unlikely to be sustainable in the face of an improving economy and rising commodity costs. Asian bond yields pushed higher against the backdrop of the spike in long-dated Treasury yields, a precursor to further turmoil in equity markets as it diminishes the appeal of a stock’s dividend yield, compelling investors to rebalance their portfolios in a hunt for value.
Listed Real Estate
The rotation lifted the GPR/APREA Listed Real Estate Composite above REITs and overall equity indices, powered by developers listed on the China and Hong Kong bourses. Rules to centralize and limit land sales to only thrice a year are the latest in a series of policies to tame property prices on the Mainland with as many as 22 city governments including Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen reportedly expected to abide by the new measures. Investors are optimistic that more rational bids could result from these supply-side policies, leading to better profit margins. Indonesian stocks also outperformed after the country’s central bank slashed interest rates and reduced downpayments on property purchases.
REITs
Despite coming under selling pressure in response to the sudden hike in sovereign bond yields, Asia Pacific REITs gained with the GPR/APREA Composite REIT Index reversing the decline experienced in January. Hong Kong REITs stood out, returning over 7.0% as vaccine optimism raised expectations of a rebound in the retail sector. Those in Japan also rose, led by its Hospitality and Office REITs.
Australian and Singapore REITs were the only markets that softened in the region, as the spike in bond yields drove weakness in its Industrial REITs, spurring rotational interest into the more cyclical Retail and Office sectors.
Meanwhile, the Philippines is setting a blistering pace in expanding the REIT universe in the region. Eight months after the debut of Ayala Land REIT, the country will have its second REIT – DDMP REIT – list in March. A portfolio that includes offices situated along a stretch of the capital’s main thoroughfares allowed developer DoubleDragon Properties Corp. to price its REIT IPO at the higher end of its indicative range. With PHP14.7 billion raised, it stands – for now – as the country’s largest REIT offering.
However, this is likely to be surpassed by Filinvest’s offering, who is aiming to raise PHP15 billion from investors. With three other listing on the cards, including those from SM Prime, Robinsons Land and Megaworld Corp., the Philippines is set to become the REIT IPO hotspot in the region this year.
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