Market Outlook

We expect a global economic recession to eventuate. The key question is how quickly the economy bounces back. This mostly depends on how rapidly COVID-19 is contained. We believe that real estate in general will see strong investor support in the medium term due to the increased need for yield alternatives given record low bond yields on one hand, and, even if the equity market bounces back, a desire for stable asset classes on the other.

The first couple of months of 2020 have been dominated by fears of the novel coronavirus’s impact on global economies and property markets. Historically, investors tend to become more cautious in their investment choices during periods of heightened uncertainty, and this year has been no exception in the Asia Pacific region. However, a closer analysis of Real Capital Analytics data shows that investor risk aversion had already been growing over the prior months.

• COVID-19: Comparable to GFC shock and bigger, but unlike GFC, is a socio-biological calamity-driven stress and  has  engulfed the entire world. Damage is physical and psychological.
• Global economic decline projected in upcoming quarters- loss of investor confidence, consumption slowdown, loss of jobs (World GDP growth could even fall to 0% in initial two quarters of 2020, on the lower side*).
• Post COVID-19, however, the world to witness large-scale transformation and business boost.

Heightened political tensions, along with the weak economy and the lingering impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, continued to affect business sentiment. Office tenants remained cautious and continued to seek downsizing and other cost-saving options, resulting in a 30% reduction in monthly rental costs because of downsizing and relocation since January 2020. In some sectors, such as banking and finance, office tenants put their plans on hold. Recent news about MNCs surrendered Grade-A office space highlighted the challenges office landlords face.