Market adjustment slows
Although the market continues to correct, we note signs that the rate of adjustment is slowing.
• For the central fi ve wards (C5W), COVID-19 is still taking a toll on the market and casting a shadow over the market’s future, although the impact appears to be showing signs of alleviation. • Average Grade A offi ce market rents in the C5W fell 1.9% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 5.3% year-on-year (YoY), and now stand at JPY35,762 per tsubo1 per month.
• The average Grade A offi ce vacancy rate in the C5W increased slightly by 0.2 percentage points (ppts) QoQ to 1.2% in Q1/2021.
• Average large-scale Grade B offi ce rents declined to JPY27,275 per tsubo per month – a contraction of 2.1% QoQ and 4.5% YoY.
• The average vacancy rate in the Grade B market lies at 2.2% following a loosening of 0.6ppts QoQ and 2.0ppts YoY.
• With limited supply expected this year and the next, the market should have time to adjust and recover, although secondary vacancy derived from the large supply in 2020 is a concern.
• While prime real estate is expected to hold steady, rents in poorly located and older offi ces are likely to fall, resulting in an overall market deterioration.
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Occupier demand started to rise in Q1/2021, but the reintroduction of crowd density controls now suggests a more protracted recovery.
• Food & beverage (F&B) revenue largely declined in Q1/2021 as operators continued to be aff ected by the COVID-19 pandemic control measures such as dine in capacity constraints and restrictions on large-scale events. However, retail sales (excluding motor vehicles) improved in the quarter, largely due to a lower base in the same period last year.
• With the positive net demand of 301,000 sq ft outweighing the net supply of 108,000 sq ft, the overall vacancy rate declined for a second consecutive quarter by 0.3 of a percentage point (ppt) to 8.5% in Q1/2021, the lowest since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic here in Q2/2020.
• Despite the lack of tourists, the Orchard Area remains resilient with the vacancy rate remaining unchanged at 11.6%. On the other hand, the vacancy level in Suburban Areas declined for a third consecutive quarter by 0.8 of a ppt to 5.2%, its lowest level since Q1/2016. • Savills monthly prime rents in Orchard Area fell, albeit at a slower pace, by 3.0% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to S$22.80 psf, compared to the 7.8% decline registered in Q4/2020.
• The more vibrant suburban malls saw a smaller contraction in Savills monthly prime rents in Suburban Areas of 2.0% QoQ to S$24.00 psf.
• Despite the limited supply pipeline over the next few years, the uptick of COVID-19 community cases led the government to backtrack from Phase 3 of the pandemic control measures to reintroduce Phase 2 (Heightened Alert). While the government has provided some form of support to retailers, it is expected that business conditions will remain challenging and rents of malls in both Orchard and Suburban Areas are forecast to decline by 15% and 10% respectively in 2021.
The COVID-19 pandemic brought the logistics sector abruptly into the global spotlight. With increased attention on the sector, both in 2020 and in the near-term, this report focuses on key drivers for the sector, recent market performance and an outlook for the industry.
Growth drivers
Leasing Market
Outlook
新冠疫情的爆发新冠疫情的爆发给全世界造成了空前的损失 。 在亚太地区即使各国各政府采取了许多有效的经济稳定措施 但这依然导致了自大萧条以来最严重的经济衰退 亚太的几个主要经济体也经历了十多年来的首次收缩 。 不过 尽管这一场严重的危机可能仍会持续一段时间 但亚太地区长期增长的基本面并不会因此改变 。亚太地区人口众多加之 城市化进程发展空前迅速 这些都将推动中产阶级 以及 消费 周期的增长 。 因此 不动产行业将成为该地区 的一个 结构性 发展 趋势 且 将一直持续下去 同时 它也将超越 新冠疫情 所带来 的影响期 。 从 疫情 带来的不利影响得到遏制到经济进入 长期 复苏阶段 基础设施投资和 不动产 投资信托 基金 REITs 在其中发挥了重要的作用 它们见证了 亚太地区 从 新冠疫情中 复苏 并保持经济发展 的这一转变过程 。
塑造未来
投资投资基础设施 建设 仍然是政府用来刺激经济的强大 工具 。 它之所以 有 效 不仅 因为基建 领域 的合理 投入 增加了短期需求 同时 也为未来的经济增长奠定了 优良的 基础 。 国际货币基金组织预计 如果各国在未来五年内 对 基础设施 领域的投资额 增加 到占 GDP 的 约 1 的水平 则 全球 GDP 总值 可能会增长近 2 。 1此类公共投资不仅 加速经济恢复的步伐 为创造就业机会和提高就业率 带来了积极 的 动能 同时也在跨境领域产生了明显的回响 。 总体而言 通过持续的基础设施投资活动 亚太地区的经济将 更加 活跃 此领域也应该 成为 未来 经济计划中的基石用以 实现经济的可持续复苏 并推动 有益的 经济转型 。
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