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Overview

After rising rapidly in the first quarter of the year, the reflation trade hit a pause amid an unexpected rise in new claims for unemployment benefits in the US. Renewed waves of Covid infection caseloads, particularly in Asia, also prompted a flight to safety with yields on 10-year Treasuries briefly hitting their lowest in over a month during April. The Fed, in a scheduled meeting at the end of the month, left rates unchanged. Despite a recovering economy, it reiterated that highly accommodative monetary policy will continue for the foreseeable future. Stock markets in the region reacted optimistically, with MSCI’s regional equity gauge back in positive territory after dipping in the previous month.

Listed Real Estate

While the GPR/APREA Listed Real Estate Composite remained in positive territory, gains were largely modest, stymied by declines in regional heavyweights – China and Japan. China stocks fell the most, as investors remained wary of regulatory pressures following data that showed sustained property price increases. New home prices in March rose at the fastest pace in seven months, with increases noted in more cities. A third state of emergency declared in Japan, in a gambit to counter infection cases three months ahead of the Olympics, hurt sentiment in the country.

REITs

Supported by positive performances in most markets, the GPR/APREA Composite REIT Index ended the month higher, sustaining a run from February. The region’s REITs outperformed equities for the second month in a row.

J-REITs led the region, maintaining a winning streak from November 2020, as increased institutional interest in Japan’s real estate assets drove performance. Starwood Capital tabled a proposal to acquire Invesco Office J-REIT, with an initial offer price that valued the REIT at a premium of over 10%. Anticipating subsequent improved offers,  the stock was quickly bid up by investors. Additionally, the BoJ maintained a pledge to buy J-REITS at an annual pace of up to ¥180 billion. In Australia, positive sentiment supported by low-interest rates and expectations of an economic recovery, fueled gains.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s markets regulator Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan, is working on easing REIT regulations, removing the need for a mandatory building completion certificate which many investors viewed as a hurdle. The South Asian country has not seen any REITs after its only listing debuted in 2015.

The region’s REIT universe continued to expand. S.F. Holding, China’s largest listed courier provider, plans to inject three logistics centres worth HK$6.1 billion into an offshore REIT to be listed in Hong Kong. A listing application for SF Real Estate Investment Trust was submitted to Hong Kong’s bourse operator in April. Mapletree Investments, a property developer and manager, is also exploring listing a student housing REIT in Singapore that could raise about S$1 billion.

Outlook

More than a year since the pandemic erupted, the region’s REITs have retraced its decline to surpass the pre-pandemic high recorded in January last year. However, they continue to lag Asia Pacific equities in returns.

Looking ahead, a flare-up of coronavirus pandemic in the region and sustained inflationary pressures continue to cloud the outlook for markets. Still, the post-pandemic economic recovery will likely gradually gather pace, which should be positive for the region’s REITs. Increased activities in the commercial real estate market, led by institutional investors suggesting continued interest in real estate assets under the current low-interest-rate environment, is expected to provide support to REITs’ valuations.

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The performance of Sydney and Japan hotels are expected to be driven by increasing domestic travel on the rollout of vaccinations, while international visitors won’t arrive in masses anytime soon.

In addition, Asia’s cruise industry has been recovering quickly as operators nimbly tap into pent-up travel demand, which could grow further with mass vaccinations in Asia and globally.

In the past quarter, hotel deals remained at historically low levels, as owners hold rather than sell assets at a discount, given support from banks and governments.

In Colliers Hotel Insights | Q2 2021, we look at:

• Why invest in hotels?
• How increasing interstate travel should improve Sydney hotel performance
• Domestic demand to prop up Japan's accommodation market
• Recommendations for hotel investors amid limited deals, as hotel owners wait and see
• The rapid recovery of the cruise industry in H1 2021

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The COVID-19 pandemic brought the logistics sector abruptly into the global spotlight. With increased attention on the sector, both in 2020 and in the near-term, this report focuses on key drivers for the sector, recent market performance and an outlook for the industry.

Growth drivers

• At the ground level, ongoing population growth and economic expansion will drive the global middle class almost to double over the next decade. This increased level of consumption, together with the accelerated shift to e-commerce, will fundamentally drive the need for stronger, more resilient and more diverse supply chains. Ongoing development of transport infrastructure will be critical to ensure market connectivity.
• A shortage of labor in some markets, especially across Europe, together with a sharper focus on Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) priorities, will force accelerated adoption of technology to bring greater efficiencies and transparency. Similarly, the use of third-party logistics (3PL) operators will continue to grow as they provide corporations with opportunities for greater nimbleness and flexibility in meeting consumer demand. 
• Geo-politics will continue to shape the global trade environment. Many short-term interim solutions have been put in place to safeguard against recent trade flow disruptions, but complete roll out of new supply chain solutions will take years as corporates weigh opportunities for reshoring and demand/supply drivers.

Leasing Market

• Industrial markets have proved resilient in 2020, and demand remained robust, despite economic growth figures being amongst the worst on record. Accordingly, industrial/logistics vacancy has remained tight across the world, although this has been due, in part, to limited development supply pipelines.
• Notwithstanding, rental growth has remained comparatively elusive across the world with less than half of the markets tracked recording growth in 2020 but this varies in and within regions. While this may not be surprising in light of the pandemic, it also reflects the longer-term stagnation in rents, with less than half of the global markets having achieved more than 2.5% rental growth per annum since 2017. However, this is expected to change with increased cost pressures being exerted on landlords; not least of all being higher acquisition costs and increased land taxes and infrastructure charges.  

Outlook

• Demand drivers highlight gaps in supply chains that can potentially be addressed by the expanded range of logistics asset types. To the extent supply chains connect production to consumption, these gaps can be in the same or across multiple regions. 
• Structural trends fueling demand over the long-term are also being accelerated by both business and consumer reactions to the pandemic. The investor outlook, therefore, is continued strong capital and income returns, with the latter likely to increase in contribution. 
• The combination of strong demand and supply chain reconfigurations to enhance efficiencies puts a sharper focus on land availability for new development. This will be a fundamental issue that needs to be addressed for real estate to meet the future needs of the sector. 

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新冠疫情的爆发新冠疫情的爆发给全世界造成了空前的损失 。 在亚太地区即使各国各政府采取了许多有效的经济稳定措施 但这依然导致了自大萧条以来最严重的经济衰退 亚太的几个主要经济体也经历了十多年来的首次收缩 。 不过 尽管这一场严重的危机可能仍会持续一段时间 但亚太地区长期增长的基本面并不会因此改变 。亚太地区人口众多加之 城市化进程发展空前迅速 这些都将推动中产阶级 以及 消费 周期的增长 。 因此 不动产行业将成为该地区 的一个 结构性 发展 趋势 且 将一直持续下去 同时 它也将超越 新冠疫情 所带来 的影响期 。 从 疫情 带来的不利影响得到遏制到经济进入 长期 复苏阶段 基础设施投资和 不动产 投资信托 基金 REITs 在其中发挥了重要的作用 它们见证了 亚太地区 从 新冠疫情中 复苏 并保持经济发展 的这一转变过程 。

 

塑造未来

投资投资基础设施 建设 仍然是政府用来刺激经济的强大 工具 。 它之所以 有 效 不仅 因为基建 领域 的合理 投入 增加了短期需求 同时 也为未来的经济增长奠定了 优良的 基础 。 国际货币基金组织预计 如果各国在未来五年内 对 基础设施 领域的投资额 增加 到占 GDP 的 约 1 的水平 则 全球 GDP 总值 可能会增长近 2 。 1此类公共投资不仅 加速经济恢复的步伐 为创造就业机会和提高就业率 带来了积极 的 动能 同时也在跨境领域产生了明显的回响 。 总体而言 通过持续的基础设施投资活动 亚太地区的经济将 更加 活跃 此领域也应该 成为 未来 经济计划中的基石用以 实现经济的可持续复苏 并推动 有益的 经济转型 。

 

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