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In this January 2021 issue, we take a look at the latest updates on the local commercial real estate market as well as share an outlook for the sector in 2021.

• While the gradual return to office is expected this year, the office segment may not immediately return to its pre-pandemic vibrancy as the uncertain global business environment may continue to affect expansion decisions of businesses over the short to medium term. The office segment, however, is seen to benefit from the anticipated growth of the IT-BPM sector with the United States' less protectionist policies under its new administration.
  
  
• The new COVID-19 variant has caused renewed anxiety and further stalls the resumption of international travel. It is also seen to discourage domestic travel as the country extends the more stringent community quarantine qualification in major urban areas and tourist destinations, thus, further blurring the tourism industry outlook.

Q4 2020 was a crucial quarter as it marked a recovery momentum with leasing indicators trending favourably compared to the previous couple of quarters. In a time of change with COVID upending the workplace playbook, the leasing trends and occupier strategies are undergoing a rapid shift and will have a bearing on market activity. Even as the COVID scenario was evolving and occupiers continued with evaluating their real estate portfolios and charting their space requirements, almost all the cities saw heightened levels of market activity with expansion driven demand making a comeback of sorts as well.  Mumbai, Pune, Delhi NCR, Ahmedabad, and Kolkata have witnessed higher fresh leasing activity for expansion and consolidation during the last quarter of the year. This augurs well for the leasing momentum in 2021, which is likely to get broad-based across cities with introduction of a vaccine and a gradual return to the workplace providing the much-needed push to market activity. 

In this report, we analyse the Indian office markets’ performance in Q4 as well as during the full year of 2020.  

This presents many opportunities for readers of The Wealth Report, whether it’s the investment potential of the global demographic trend towards longer, healthier lives – explored in detail in our Big Interview on page 10 – or the ability of forward-thinking property investors and landlords to capitalise on demand for “healthy” workspaces that boost productivity, which we discuss on page 76. In parallel with this, “giving something back” is increasingly important to the UHNWI community, and on page 86 we profile three fascinating philanthropists whose work benefits a diverse range of causes.

A central pillar of The Wealth Report, the results of our proprietary Wealth Sizing Model – unveiled on page 18 – reveal that wealth continues to be created around the world, especially in Asia’s economic hubs. This growth in private capital is having a noticeable impact on real estate markets globally.

Whatever happens, real estate investors need to be innovative and adaptable, forming investment strategies which align with these structural changes.

COVID-19 has plunged the world into one of the most uncertain periods on record. Gold has hit record highs, equity volatility is elevated and government bond yields around the world remain low. Yet against this backdrop, we predict that real estate investment will remain attractive, thanks to lower volatility than other asset classes, a history of strong returns through longer-term direct investment, and, crucially, its ability to generate income in a world where 60% of bond yields globally are below 1%1 and over $14 trillion have negative yields.

For the service sector, a greater domestic workforce of support staff will offer renewed demand for office space. Localised employment growth in manufacturing, storage and service sectors will also enhance demand for other types of real estate, including residential and healthcare. There will also be indirect opportunities for international real estate investment. As an alternative to increased localisation, cross-border property investment offers global diversification and more options to meet revenue targets.

Nationalism and the advent of trade wars were already on the ascendency, but recent disruptions to business continuity, and overseas travel caused by the pandemic will only accelerate this trend. This has prompted discussions of reshoring (bringing foreign operations back home), onshoring (bringing supply chains within national borders) and nearshoring (bringing operations closer to home). Some types of real estate will thrive as a result. The logistics sector is seeing additional occupational requirements, which have translated into an even stronger investment demand.